2003
DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-200312
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The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities

Abstract: In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and accurate data set. We have two main results. First, we have recorded strong negative skewness in the densities. Second, we find evidence for significant differences between the actual density and the risk-neutral density… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…Pros and cons of different methods to extract probability density functions have been extensively discussed (see eg Clews, Panigirtzoglou, and Proudman (2000) and Jackwerth ( 2004)). We use as functional form the mixture of two lognormals which is parsimonious because it requires only five parameters to fit and can account for asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks and allows for high probabilities of extreme events to occur (Craig, Glatzer, Keller, and Scheicher (2003)). Owing to put call parity we can derive probabilities on calls and puts solely on days were no trading of one or the other option takes place.…”
Section: Deriving Risk Neutral Densitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Pros and cons of different methods to extract probability density functions have been extensively discussed (see eg Clews, Panigirtzoglou, and Proudman (2000) and Jackwerth ( 2004)). We use as functional form the mixture of two lognormals which is parsimonious because it requires only five parameters to fit and can account for asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks and allows for high probabilities of extreme events to occur (Craig, Glatzer, Keller, and Scheicher (2003)). Owing to put call parity we can derive probabilities on calls and puts solely on days were no trading of one or the other option takes place.…”
Section: Deriving Risk Neutral Densitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Hence, risk premia matter for the interpretation of implied densities. A Bundesbank study by Craig et al (2003) examines the extent to which implied risk-neutral densities "anticipate" extreme price changes in the DAX. The authors document a strong negative skewness in the densities which suggests that the markets attach a higher probability to a large loss than to a comparable gain.…”
Section: Extracting Information From Asset Prices About Expectationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2002) and Bondarenko (2003) compare several competing procedures and conclude that nonparametric methods base on either the smoothed (spline) implied volatility smile and the positive convolution approximation seem to dominate the two-lognormal approach and other parametric techniques when estimating RNDs. Moreover, Anagnou, Bedendo, Hodges and Tompkins (2005) for the UK option market, Craig, Glatzer, Keller and Scheicher (2003) for the German stock option data, Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) for the US and the UK option data, and Alonso, Blanco and Rubio (2005) for the Spanish option prices conclude that the RND is not an unbiased estimator of actual probability density function. This may not be surprising given the risk-neutrality embedded in these estimates.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%