The future cost to the United Kingdom's railway network of heat-related delays and buckles caused by the predicted increase in high summer temperatures owing to climate change

Abstract

Climate change predictions suggest a trend towards hotter drier summers in the UK. At extreme high temperatures the railway network is prone to dangerous, damaging, and expensive rail buckles. In order to reduce the risk of a rail buckle, emergency speed restrictions are introduced which can be costly. This article presents a quantification of the effects of higher summer temperatures due to climate change on the UK railway network. A combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator are used to establish trends between heat-related delays and temperatures. Costs are assigned to the change in frequency and severity of delays and evidence-based recommendations are made for future operations. The results demonstrate that the costs incurred as a result of the hot summer of 2003 will become typical in the 2050s (high emissions scenario) and 2080s (low emissions scenario). If no changes are made to maintenance regimes, it is estimated that the total costs of heat-related delays will eventually double to nearly £23 M during extreme summers.

Heat-Related Failures on Southeast England’s Railway Network: Insights and Implications for Heat Risk Management

“…This will result in some underreporting of delay minutes/costs for heat-related events. Previous studies that have used these or similar databases for weather/climate research include the following: Dobney et al (2009Dobney et al ( , 2010, which quantified the effects of higher summer temperatures as a result of climate change on the railway network; Jaroszweski et al (2015), which described the impact the 28 June 2012 storms had on the railway network; and Palin et al (2013), which examined the impact that climate change may have on several temperature-related issues, including track buckling, worker heat stress, sag of overhead lines, and delays to track maintenance. The databases are also used for internal analyses and research undertaken by Network Rail (e.g., Network Rail 2014a.…”

“…These speed restrictions put passenger safety first, but unfortunately lead to passenger disruption and delay and cost Network Rail money in the form of compensation payments to the passenger and freight train operating companies that use the infrastructure. Several studies have considered the incidence and cost of track buckles under a future warmer climate (e.g., Baker et al 2010;Dobney et al 2009;Palin et al 2013), and without targeted adaptation and/or mitigation, the costs associated with heat-related delays are projected to double in the future ; Thornes et al 2012).…”

Continuing Challenges in Transportation Adaptation

“…Assessments of ports [6], transit [7•], freight lines [8], and airports [9] have been done across the globe using a variety of frameworks, including qualitative scoring approaches that rank risks based on their consequences and probabilities, as well as more quantitative approaches. A particularly comprehensive summary of climate impacts on ports and sea trade was published by the U.N. in 2012 [10].…”

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Transport Sector

“…Recent insights for rail transport show that both positive and negative effects may be substantial (e.g. Dobney, Baker, Chapman, & Quinn, 2010;Dobney, Baker, Quinn, & Chapman, 2009), so net consequences are highly region specific. For the aviation sector, wind speeds, wind direction and visibility have clear effects on safety and delays and cancellations (e.g.…”

“…Adaptation may therefore involve the use of different materials, different parameter settings, and increased drainage capacity (see Table 5.1 in TRB, 2008, for a list of infrastructure design adaptation measures). With respect to adaptation of rail infrastructure, Dobney et al (2010) and Dobney et al (2009) suggest that proper maintenance of track and track bed and proper setting of the stress-free rail temperature are the most efficient adaptation measures. Also for inland waterways, adaptation of the waterway infrastructure itself (e.g.…”