Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected per year will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the south-east of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated.

Climate change predictions suggest a trend towards hotter drier summers in the UK. At extreme high temperatures the railway network is prone to dangerous, damaging, and expensive rail buckles. In order to reduce the risk of a rail buckle, emergency speed restrictions are introduced which can be costly. This article presents a quantification of the effects of higher summer temperatures due to climate change on the UK railway network. A combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator are used to establish trends between heat-related delays and temperatures. Costs are assigned to the change in frequency and severity of delays and evidence-based recommendations are made for future operations. The results demonstrate that the costs incurred as a result of the hot summer of 2003 will become typical in the 2050s (high emissions scenario) and 2080s (low emissions scenario). If no changes are made to maintenance regimes, it is estimated that the total costs of heat-related delays will eventually double to nearly £23 M during extreme summers.

This article considers the issues surrounding climate change and the rail industry in two ways. First, it discusses the role that railways could play in reducing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus help to reduce and mitigate the global temperature increase that will occur over the coming decades. It is argued that, while railways in general have lower emissions than other modes, if a significant decrease in emissions is to be attained, then the capacity of the current rail network needs to be greatly increased to encourage a significant modal shift from road and domestic air travel. Electrification and the provision of high-speed lines can also play a role in this regard, but only if the power that is drawn from the grid is supplied by low carbon sources. Second, the article considers the effect of climate change on the operation of the railway in the next few decades and the adaptations that will be required. The main effects of such changes are likely to be an increase in the track buckling problem, severe strain on railway drainage systems, and the increased likelihood of disruption because of extreme weather events. Ongoing work in this field, aimed at making the railways more resilient, is discussed. It is concluded that, for each of the two areas considered, there is a need for overall system modelling, both to fully evaluate possible mechanisms to reduce GHG emissions, taking account of transfer between modes, capacity limitations, and the national energy mix; and to properly evaluate the major climate change risks to railway operation and to prioritize the use of resources in tackling these issues.