The future of global trade in the presence of the Sino-US trade war

Iqbal, Badar Alam; Rahman, Nida; Elimimian, Jonathan U.

doi:10.1080/20954816.2019.1595324

Cited by 41 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…When geopolitical factors drive oil prices beyond realistic levels, Brazil should seize the opportunity to use shale oil as an important strategic resource (dos Santos and Lara dos Santos Matai, 2010); The Korean Peninsula should make strategic use of its own geopolitics to connect the Eurasian continent energy transportation and achieve prosperity through economic cooperation with the United States, China, Japan and Russia (Duk, 2018); China's energy market is far from mature, and energy risks bring great fluctuations to the price of China's energy asset market (Li, 2010). The tense geopolitical relationship between the United States and China has brought a huge impact on the world energy and trade markets (Iqbal et al, 2019;Qiu et al, 2019;Liu, 2020). Tunsjo puts forward new perspective on China's strategy of acquiring energy resources in Sudan and Iran as well as the importance of China's state-owned oil tanker fleet in China's energy security policy by drawing lessons from hedging and risk management (Tunsjo, 2010); Oil is the main reason for United States intervention in the Middle East (Checkovich, 2005;Harvey, 2008).…”

Section: Literature Review and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The U.S.-China trade war has attracted attentions from academics, policy makers, businesses and investors around the world (Iqbal et al, 2019;Qiu et al, 2019;Liu, 2020). On August 1, 2019, due to the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Chinese government's purchase process of US agricultural products, Trump announced on Twitter that he would impose a 10% tariff on all remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports to the US starting from September 1, 2019.…”

Section: United States-china Tensionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

Liu

Yang

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In the context of intensifying global geopolitical disputes and trade frictions, the relationship between geopolitics and energy trade has attracted extensive attention from scholars. The complexity of geopolitical risks mainly comes from the diversity of geopolitical events, which directly leads to the different responses of energy trade in the face of geopolitical risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade based on the difference of event types. This paper uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to simulate a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the monthly data and the Geopolitical Risk index (GPR index) of 17 emerging economies from 2000 to 2020, the empirical analysis can be concluded as follows: Wars and conflicts events lead to the increase of energy trade volume; terrorist attacks have no significant impact on energy trade; international tension can cause the decline in energy trade. Additional analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade in emerging economies is concentrated on the demand side, and the demand is severely inelastic.

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Section: Literature Review and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: United States-china Tensionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

Liu

Yang

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Lawrence J. Lau notes the shift in China's foreign economic relations focus to such countries and regions as the EU, ASEAN, Japan and Russia [25]. Analysts have identified a trend towards intensifying China-EU trade and economic ties, and moreover, the Asian market is becoming more important for European business than that of the US [14] Rahman believe that the trade war will result in losses for both conflicting parties but it might come as a benefit for other countries: "Being the two largest economies of the world, giving in for disengaging trade with each other is bound to have a ripple effect on the global system of trade" [33]. In the view of the US protectionism, countries with large domestic markets will be the ones to gain a competitive advantage.…”

Section: Scenario 3 the Trade Conflict Is Frozen On The Already Implemented Bilateral Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

US-China Trade War: Causes and Outcomes

et al. 2020

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The article reviews the chronology and analyses the causes and possible consequences of the trade war between the US and China. The authors identify four main reasons that led to the greatest trade conflict between the two economies in history associated with intentions of the US: a) to reduce the deficit of bilateral trade and increase the number of jobs; b) to limit access of Chinese companies to American technologies and prevent digital modernization of the industry in the PRC; c) to prevent the growth of China’s military strength; and d) to reduce the federal budget deficit. It is confirmed and concluded that trade wars have no winners. Taking into account the two countries’ GDP scale and export volumes, the US-China trade war will come amid a slowdown in the global production and international trade. The article analyses the outcomes of the trade confrontation based on the scenario methodology. The authors identify 4 scenarios by making assumptions about the response pattern and conjectural variation in the bilateral economic relations. The US protectionist policy has its political dimension. The constraints of the bilateral trade is one of the tools for slowing China's military and economic power growth.

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“…From the perspective of implications of the Sino-US trade war on the global trade, perhaps a scaleup in prices of foreign goods in the home country, trade diversion, and distortions in global value chains seem inevitable. In this context, Iqbal et al (2019) indicate their concerns that the world economy is now facing a detrimental uncertainty that undermines the long-term prospects. 10.…”

Section: The Implications and The Main Dimensions Of The Us-china Tramentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of the Current Global Restructuring and Contemporary Framework of the US–China Trade War

Vlados

2020

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies

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The current escalation of the US–China trade war shows that the dynamics of the crisis and restructuring of the global socioeconomic system are in an accelerating phase. In the present study, we seek to explore the fundamental dimensions and future directions of the US–China trade war and delineate a conceptual framework for understanding its significance for restructuring of the global system. Through some representative scientific contributions to the study on the US–China trade war, we find an increasing emphasis on the declining and repositioning of US global hegemony, which the earlier optimistic theoretical forecasts did not manage to predict. By linking the dynamics of the crisis and restructuring of the global socioeconomic system to the forces of innovation and change management, we argue that this trade war is yet another proof of the gradual restructuring of global equilibriums. These alterations of the structures of the global system seem to lead to the creation of a new equilibrium regime we call “new globalization,” which requires the gradual construction of a new global architecture.

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The future of global trade in the presence of the Sino-US trade war

Cited by 41 publications

References 6 publications

Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

US-China Trade War: Causes and Outcomes

The Dynamics of the Current Global Restructuring and Contemporary Framework of the US–China Trade War

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