The geography of phylogenetic paleoecology: integrating data and methods to better understand biotic response to climate change

Abstract

Deeper knowledge about how species and communities respond to climate change and environmental gradients should be supported by evidence from the past, especially as modern responses are influenced by anthropogenic pressures, including human population growth, habitat destruction and fragmentation, and intensifying land use. There have been great advances in modeling species’ geographic distributions over shallow time, where consideration of evolutionary change is likely less important due to shorter time for evolution and speciation to occur. Over these shallow time periods, we have more resources for paleoclimate interpretation across large geographic landscapes. We can also gain insight into species and community changes by studying deep records of temporal changes. However, modeling species geographic distributions in deep time remains challenging, because for many species there is sparse coverage of spatial and temporal occurrences and there are fewer paleoclimate general circulation models (GCMs) to help interpret the geographic distribution of climate availability. In addition, at deeper time periods, it is essential to consider evolutionary change within lineages of species. I will discuss a framework that integrates evolutionary information in the form of phylogenetic relatedness from clades of extant closely related species, where and when there are associated fossil occurrences, and the geographic distribution of paleoclimate in deep time to infer species past geographic response to climate change and to estimate where and when there were hotspots of ancient diversification. More work is needed to better understand the evolution of physiological tolerances and how physiological tolerances relate to the climate space in which species occur.

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

“…Studies have shown that concentration increase of greenhouse gas emissions may result in a sustained increase [13]. Changes in the spatial and temporal pattern of climate may lead to changes in the geographical distribution of rare and endangered species, thus threatening their original habitats [14,15]. Therefore, a systematic verification of the geographical distribution pattern of rare and endangered species under climate change scenarios can effectively protect the habitat of rare and endangered species as well as the authenticity of ecological system [16].…”

South Asian Monsoon Variability and Arctic Sea Ice Extent Linkages During the Late Pliocene

“…In Oscillayers, benthic δ 18 O records are first merged with Community Climate System Model Version 4 LGM-model simulations (Gent et al, 2011), and then extrapolated across the Plio-Pleistocene using the δ 18 O data. Oscillayers data shows a reasonably good match with independent time-slice GCM simulations (Gamisch, 2019) and has been used in several studies covering different time spans (Hölzchen et al, 2022;Lawing, 2021;McGuire & Lauer, 2020). ) is indicated by a closed blue circle.…”

Looking Back for the Future: The Ecology of Terrestrial Communities Through the Lens of Conservation Paleobiology

“…Our interpretation of deep-time biogeography is complicated by lower spatial and temporal occurrences in the fossil record, fewer models of paleoclimate, and the need to consider evolutionary change. Lawing (2021) discussed the progression of SDMs and ENMs, including the application of climate envelope models to the fossil record, and described a framework for paleophylogeographic SDMs. This framework incorporates phylogenetic relatedness, fossil occurrences, and paleoclimate from general circulation models in deep time to infer past hotspots of species diversification and past geographic responses of species to environmental change.…”

“…Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) are used to quantify the diversification of clades, evolutionary patterns of traits, and species biogeography. Although PCMs are most often used at the macroevolutionary level, an increasing number of researchers have recognized the advantages of applying these methods to conservation (Condamine et al 2013, Lamsdell et al 2017, Lawing 2021, Pyron & Pennell 2022. For instance, using phylogenies to estimate speciation and extinction rates and clade age can help us understand the vulnerability and evolutionary potential of species or clades (Condamine et al 2013, Pyron & Pennell 2022.…”