The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia

Aguayo, Rodrigo; León‐Muñoz, Jorge; Baecheler, José Vargas; Montecinos, Aldo; Garreaud, René D.; Urbina, Mauricio A.; Soto, Doris; Iriarte, José Luis

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02495-6

Cited by 37 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…This reflects the importance of seasonality in abiotic environmental conditions for community structure in this region. The detected patterns suggest that the current climate change‐related climatic anomalies in Patagonia ( e.g., Garreaud, 2018; Aguayo et al., 2019) could have severe effects on the diversity, structure, and functioning of these communities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Disentangling the links between habitat complexity and biodiversity in a kelp‐dominated subantarctic community

Velasco-Charpentier

Pizarro-Mora

Navarro

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Habitat complexity is one of the most important factors modulating species diversity. This feature comprises several interrelated attributes, such as number, size, and spatial arrangement of complexity‐forming elements. However, the separate and joint effects of these attributes on diversity and community structure are still not well understood. Here, we assess the relationships between several structural‐complexity attributes of the subantarctic kelp Lessonia flavicans and species richness, total abundance, and structure of kelp‐associated macrobenthic communities. We predicted that longer thalli and larger holdfasts favor greater species richness and total abundance of invertebrate organisms. To test the prediction, an observational sampling program was established in two sites of the Strait of Magellan. Uni‐ and multivariate analyses revealed both positive and negative effects of kelp structural‐complexity attributes on diversity. Holdfast diameter and maximum frond length, followed by thallus wet weight, had the strongest positive fits to species richness and total abundance; the number of stipes, on the other hand, was negatively associated with both response variables. Longer fronds were associated with greater abundances of spirorbid polychaetes. Larger holdfasts supported larger abundances of Nereididae and Terebelidae polychaetes and the limpet Nacella mytilina. Contrarily, kelps with longer fronds and more stipes supported fewer amphipods. In this way, we demonstrate that different dimensions of habitat complexity can have contrasting effects on diversity and community structure, highlighting the fundamental role of multiple dimensions of kelp habitat complexity for local biodiversity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Disentangling the links between habitat complexity and biodiversity in a kelp‐dominated subantarctic community

Velasco-Charpentier

Pizarro-Mora

Navarro

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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“…The basin presents a high availability of hydro-climate information (Fig. 1 ), which has allowed good performance in previous hydrological modeling 26 . The Puelo River averages a streamflow (Q m ) of 640 m 3 s −1 before its mouth in the Reloncaví Fjord, and like other rivers in the southern Andes, is characterized by its peaks in winter and spring 28 , 31 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… More information on bias correction can be found in Aguayo et al 26 . All bias correction schemes were performed in the period 2000–2019.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The WEAP input variables are precipitation, temperature and (optionally) relative humidity and wind speed. Given the low availability and spatial representation of available observation records for the southern Andes 26 , 38 , the corrected products of Table 1 were used. The modeling considered a monthly time step, a time window adequate for the characterization of hydrological droughts 39 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of these projections, in a region such as the southern Andes, where there is high seasonal snow storage, a more intense and extensive summer season is expected as a result of early snow melting 25 . Aguayo et al 26 estimated that the streamflow of the Puelo River (41°S, Fig. 1 ) could decrease by ~ 20% in summer and 15% in autumn by 2030–2060.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Aguayo

León‐Muñoz

Garreaud

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.

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Patagonian Marine Forests in a Scenario of Global and Local Stressors

Horta

Koerich

Grimaldi

et al. 2022

Natural and Social Sciences of Patagonia

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The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia

Cited by 37 publications

References 55 publications

Disentangling the links between habitat complexity and biodiversity in a kelp‐dominated subantarctic community

Disentangling the links between habitat complexity and biodiversity in a kelp‐dominated subantarctic community

Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Patagonian Marine Forests in a Scenario of Global and Local Stressors

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