The Global Conflict Risk Index: A quantitative tool for policy support on conflict prevention

Domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries: An exploratory analysis of sub‐Saharan Africa and Latin America

“…For consistency, the paper relies on the GDP data included in the ICTD dataset. The paper also uses the World Bank's World Development Indicators (Coppedge & Etal, 2020), ethnic fragmentation index (Drazanova, 2019), and measures of corruption, repression and age dependency (Halkia, Ferri, Schellens, Papazoglou, & Thomakos, 2020).…”

Multidimensional fragility in 2020

“…Fragility emerges from a complex interaction of factors (risks and coping capacities) within and across systems. Complex, adaptive systems are multilayered (Gregorian, Olson and Woodward, 2019 [59]). For example, the OECD fragility framework classifies education as a source of resilience to economic fragility of a context (OECD, 2020 [5]).…”

“…Fragility and resilience are examples of properties that emerge from the complex interactions within and between systems. Actors cannot always identify such properties, especially when the properties' emergence is not deliberate (Gregorian, Olson and Woodward, 2019 [59]). These challenges underscore the value of thinking in systems to understand the nature of the relationships that lead to emergent properties such as fragility.…”

Conflict prevention in fragile contexts

“…Deaths due to violent conflict are also concentrated in fragile contexts. Though deaths due to violence are difficult to measure (GREVD Consortium, 2020 [10]), available evidence from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) suggests that 79% of the total global deaths from violent conflict in 2019 were in fragile contexts, a drop from the historical high of 97% in 2013 ( Figure 1.2). Additionally, 96% of deaths from state-based armed conflict occurred in fragile contexts in 2019 (Pettersson and Öberg, 2020 [7]), with Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic accounting for a significant share of the total (Figure 1.3).…”