The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation

Yao, Shuai‐Lei; Huang, Gang; Wu, Renguang; Qü, Xia

doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x

Cited by 39 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…2009; Kosaka and Xie 2013;Trenberth and Fasullo 2013;Meehl et al 2013;England et al 2014;Maher et al 2014;Dai et al 2015;Steinman et al 2015;Roberts et al 2015;Yao et al 2016;Kosaka and Xie 2016;Meehl et al 2016b;Middlemas and Clement 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal

et al. 2017

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Interannual to decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean is a prominent feature of Earth's climate system, with global teleconnections. Recent studies have identified Pacific decadal variability as a major driver of periods of rapid and slower global mean surface air temperature change. Here, we use an eddy-permitting global ocean model to investigate the role of the observed 1992-2011 trade wind intensification and concurrent trends in surface atmospheric variables over the Pacific associated with the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in driving ocean circulation and heat content changes. We find a strengthening of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to strengthened winds, which brings cooler water to the surface of the eastern Pacific and an increase in the Pacific shallow overturning cells (PSOC), which in turn drives additional heat into the subsurface western Pacific. The wind acceleration also results in an increase in the strength and subsequent heat transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF), which transports some of the additional heat from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean. The circulation changes result in warming of the subsurface western Pacific, cooling of the upper eastern Pacific Ocean and warming of the subsurface Indian Ocean, with an overall increase in Indo-Pacific heat content. Further experiments impose a symmetric reversal of the atmospheric state to examine how the ocean would behave if the winds (and other atmospheric variables) were to revert to their initial state. This mimics a return to the neutral phase of the IPO, characterised by a weakening of the Pacific trade winds. In response we find a slowdown of the EUC and the PSOC, which results in a return to climatological SST conditions in the western and eastern Pacific. The ITF also slows towards its original strength. However, the subsurface temperature, heat content and ITF responses are not symmetric due to an overall increase in the surface heat flux into the ocean associated with the cooler surface of the Pacific. There may also be irreversible heat transport across the thermocline via diapycnal mixing, further contributing to this asymmetry. The net result of the experiment is that the Indo-Pacific subsurface ocean is warmer than it was in its initial state.

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confidence: 99%

Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal

et al. 2017

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“…However, this requirement appears to limit our model choices considerably. First, many methods are not statistical in nature, such as moving averages (Hansen et al, 2010;Smith et al, 2015;Fyfe et al, 2016), binomial filters (Morice et al, 2012), wavelets with scale dependencies (Lin and Franzke, 2015), EEMD decomposition (Wei et al, 2015;Yao et al, 2015) or linear trends based on stair-step averages with variable lengths (De Saedeleer, 2016). A historic example is given in Fig.…”

Section: Appendix A: An Overview Of Trend Methods Applied To Gmst Obmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1a; Karl et al, 2015;Rajaratnam et al, 2015), linear trends with change points (Cahill et al, 2015), binomial filters (Morice et al, 2012), splines (IPCC, 2013 -Box 2.2, Fig. b), EEMD decomposition (Wei et al, 2015;Yao et al, 2015), structural time series models (Visser and Molenaar, 1995;Mills, 2006Mills, , 2010 and long-memory trend models (Lennartz and Bunde, 2009;Rea et al, 2011). …”

Section: Appendix A: An Overview Of Trend Methods Applied To Gmst Obmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

et al. 2018

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Abstract. In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 • C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 • C". Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is "pre-industrial" and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

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“…From such trends inferences must be made that changes in global average temperature correspond to fundamental changes in the climate system itself beyond natural internal variability. The horizontal temperature trend from approximately 1995 to the present may be attributed to internal climate variability [33,34]. …”

Section: Satellite Temperature Monitoringmentioning

confidence: 98%

Sustainable Infrastructure: Climate Changes and Carbon Dioxide

Pontius¹

2017

AJCE

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Abstract:Civil infrastructure provides the physical backbone of all societies. Water supply, wastewater treatment, transportation systems, and civil structures must be sustainable over multiple decades (e.g. 20, 30, 50 years) for human populations to survive and flourish. Over such a long time-period, climate changes are inevitable. The global atmospheric system is dynamic. Weather and climates are constantly adjusting. To date the effects of carbon dioxide have been evaluated almost exclusively using a global reference frame. However, civil infrastructure is stationary and local in nature. A locational reference frame is introduced here as an alternative framework for evaluating the effect of carbon dioxide on civil infrastructure. Temperature data from the City of Riverside, California from 1901 to 2017 are analyzed to illustrate application of a local reference frame. No evidence of significant climate change beyond natural variability was observed in this temperature record. Using a Climate Sensitivity best estimate of 2°C, the increase in temperature resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 is estimated at approximately 0.009°C/yr which is insignificant compared to natural variability.

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The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation

Cited by 39 publications

References 45 publications

Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal

Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal

Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Sustainable Infrastructure: Climate Changes and Carbon Dioxide

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