The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Source of Cooperation or Contention?

Abstract

Forum papers are thought-provoking opinion pieces or essays founded in fact, sometimes containing speculation, on a civil engineering topic of general interest and relevance to the readership of the journal. The views expressed in this Forum article do not necessarily reflect the views of ASCE or the Editorial Board of the journal.

Management Scenarios of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Their Impacts under Recent and Future Climates

“…Due to the location of the GERD in a deep gorge, the surface area is relatively small compared to its volume, and the evaporative demand is lower than in the HAD [4]. Hence, water losses from evaporation in the GERD are much smaller than in the HAD [4]. Mean annual losses from both reservoirs, HAD and GERD, may be 16% less than the loss from the HAD operating alone [21].…”

“…Mulat and Moges (2014) [21] estimate a reduction of 7% in electricity generation of the HAD, once the GERD is online. Taye et al (2016) [4] on the contrary argue that, with the GERD online, the minimum annual net benefit for Sudan and Egypt may increase from $4.9-$5.6 billion in the agricultural and energy sector. Besides greater net benefits with increasing storage in Ethiopia, floods and droughts will be reduced, and the hydrological uncertainties will be nullified, particularly during low flow periods [20].…”

“…This would be particularly beneficial under projected climate change where temperature in the UBN may increase between 3.0 and 6.5 K at the end of the 21st Century compared to the period of 1970-1999 [28]. Due to the location of the GERD in a deep gorge, the surface area is relatively small compared to its volume, and the evaporative demand is lower than in the HAD [4]. Hence, water losses from evaporation in the GERD are much smaller than in the HAD [4].…”

“…Yet, in 2001, only 3% of this potential had been developed [2], and only 13% of the Ethiopian households had access to electricity [3]. Due to an electricity access program, established in 2005, the number of households in rural towns and villages connected to the grid increased to over 40% in 2011 [1,3], but one year later, Ethiopia had 57 kWh per capita and year, still at a very low consumption level, where the global average is 7000 kWh per capita and year [4]. To meet the growing electricity demand that increased with improved access and challenged the provision, Ethiopia's power corporation commissioned three large hydropower plants in 2010 with a capacity above 2000 MW [1].…”

“…To meet the growing electricity demand that increased with improved access and challenged the provision, Ethiopia's power corporation commissioned three large hydropower plants in 2010 with a capacity above 2000 MW [1]. In the course of the Climate-Resilient Green Energy strategy, the Ethiopian Government is planning to expand its hydroelectric capacity further [5] and to become a regional power hub [1], by implementing several hydropower projects and building power transmission and distribution lines to neighboring countries [4]. A major step in this regard was the announcement in 2011 to construct the largest reservoir in Africa near the border to Sudan [6], the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Scenarios are thus the only suitable method to capture the range of uncertainties of these unknown variables in order to answer the following questions that are central to our research: (1) How will dam operations alter the natural flow regime (annual cycle) of the Blue Nile River?…”