The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)

Niedźwiedź, Tadeusz; Glaser, Rüdiger; Hansson, Daniel; Helama, Samuli; Клименко, В. В.; Łupikasza, Ewa; Małarzewski, Łukasz; Nordli, Øyvind; Przybylak, Rajmund; Riemann, D.; Solomina, Olga

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_3

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Poland have been used only for air temperature reconstructions (e.g. Przybylak et al, 2005;Szychowska-Krąpiec, 2010;Niedźwiedź et al, 2015). In the present paper, this kind of proxy data is used for the first time to identified droughts occurring in the vegetation period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Przybylak

Oliński

Koprowski

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration and intensity. For this purpose both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation were used. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The longest chronology covers the years 996–1986 and was constructed for eastern Pomerania. The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches. In the first approach we used the globally and nationally popular Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month time scales. Thus, three categories of droughts were analysed: meteorological (SPI1), agricultural (SPI3) and hydrological (SPI24). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). Droughts were divided into three categories based on the following SPI values: moderate droughts (−0.50 to −1.49), severe (−1.50 to −1.99), and extreme (≤−2.00). The second approach includes the new proposed method for distinguishing droughts and quantitatively estimating their intensity and duration. More than one hundred droughts were found in documentary sources from the mid-15th century to the end of the 18th century, including 17 megadroughts. A greater-than-average number of droughts was observed in the second halves of the 17th century, and of the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. The clearly greatest number of negative pointer years occurred in the 18th century and then in the period 1451–1500. In the period 996–2015, a total of 758 negative pointer years were recorded. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of two months (about 60–70 %), or 3–4 months (10–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5 and more months were lower than 10 %. The longest droughts had a duration of 7–8 months. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter. This fact should be taken into account when analysing droughts delimited using documentary evidence. In Poland in 1451–1800, in light of this sort of information, droughts in spring and summer clearly dominated, while only three winter droughts were mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Przybylak

Oliński

Koprowski

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…13). Fires were also reported in Iława and Szczecinek (Nowosad and Oliński, 2019). Table 3 are shown.…”

Section: The Year 1540mentioning

confidence: 91%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The history of drought occurrence in Poland in the last millennium is poorly known. To improve this knowledge we have conducted a comprehensive analysis using both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration, and intensity. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in the period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage, and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI, calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month timescales, and a new method proposed by authors). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee et al. (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources in the period 1451–1800, including 17 megadroughts. A greater than average number of droughts were observed in the second halves of the 17th century and the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of 2 months (about 60 %–70 %) or 3–4 months (10 %–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5-or-more months were lower than 10 %. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the instrumental period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter, while in the documentary evidence (1451–1800) droughts in this season are rarely mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).

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“…This shift in the NAO index has been interpreted as the enhanced influence of easterly anomalies during the LIA. Moreover, the very strong cooling, long winters and droughts in the mid-15th century coincided with high pressure conditions of the Siberian High (Meeker and Mayewski, 2002; Klimenko and Solomina, 2010; Niedźwiedź et al, 2015) and transport of cold continental air to eastern Poland. In fact, according to Przybylak (2011) the 15th century in Poland was a time of the major continentalization of climate.…”

Section: Responses Of Selected Trees On Anthropressure and Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The recorded decrease could have been associated with the aforementioned timber trade being a part of the economic activities of the Teutonic Order. On the other hand, climate factors should also be considered, as it was the time of the transition to the main stage of the LIA (Niedźwiedź et al, 2015). Wanner et al (2015) indicated that the LIA, especially the period between ca.…”

Section: Responses Of Selected Trees On Anthropressure and Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Was it ‘terra desolata’? Conquering and colonizing the medieval Prussian wilderness in the context of climate change.

et al. 2016

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Pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal and geochemical analyses of sediments from Lakes Salęt and Ruskowiejskie (NE Poland) were used to reconstruct vegetation changes in the former Galindia territory (Old Prussia) related to human activity and the climatic instability of the medieval period. Among archaeologists and historians, there is a widespread opinion that the permanent transformations of the environment in Prussia (south-eastern Baltic region) began not earlier than after its conquest by the Teutonic Order and resulted from its economic activity and intensive colonization. The impact of previous inhabitants of this land on the environment has been considered as definitely weak. Our results provide entirely contrasting evidence and demonstrate that strong and permanent deforestation started as early as in the early 11th century AD, in the pre-Teutonic Order time, and were associated with the economic activity of the Prussian Galinditae tribes. In this paper, we also discuss a possible interpretation of the medieval distribution patterns of Quercus. We assume that human activity catalysed and amplified both its spreading process and decline, primarily driven by the ‘Little Ice Age’ climatic deterioration. Our palynological results indicate the significant spread of Picea from ca. AD 1000, which we interpret as reflecting hydrological and climatic changes. Moreover, we hypothesize that the spread of Carpinus in the early medieval period (11th–13th centuries), which occurred in connection with more intense human activity, was largely because of woodland pasturing.

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The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)

Cited by 15 publications

References 98 publications

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

Was it ‘terra desolata’? Conquering and colonizing the medieval Prussian wilderness in the context of climate change.

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