The impact of climate variability and change on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis rates in New Zealand

Britton, E. G.; Hales, Simon; Venugopal, Kamalesh; Baker, Michael G

doi:10.2166/wh.2010.049

Cited by 52 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…For example, although a study assessing the relationship between climate variables, Salmonella incidence in retail chicken and human cases in Canada found a positive association with temperature, it was summer barbequing and gardening that were identified as primary risk factors [30]. In New Zealand, population drinking water quality was found to modify the positive association between rainfall and cryptosporidiosis, with better quality drinking water having a protective effect [100].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

et al. 2012

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Background Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. Methodology/Principal Findings We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). Conclusions/Significance Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

et al. 2012

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“…For example, in the United States extreme precipitation events precede on the order of 68% of waterborne disease outbreaks 6 . Heavy precipitation has been implicated in cryptosporidiosis in Milwaukee, USA 53 , New Zealand 54 and Spain 55 , as well as in emergency visits for diarrhea in the springtime in New York 56 . Recreational waters and harvesting of shellfish are often closed following extreme precipitation events due to the high probability of contamination 6 .…”

Section: Dom and Sip: A Pathway To Disease Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters

Williamson

Madronich

Lal

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Climate change is accelerating the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland and coastal waters through increases in precipitation, thawing of permafrost, and changes in vegetation. Our modeling approach suggests that the selective absorption of ultraviolet radiation (UV) by DOM decreases the valuable ecosystem service wherein sunlight inactivates waterborne pathogens. Here we highlight the sensitivity of waterborne pathogens of humans and wildlife to solar UV, and use the DNA action spectrum to model how differences in water transparency and incident sunlight alter the ability of UV to inactivate waterborne pathogens. A case study demonstrates how heavy precipitation events can reduce the solar inactivation potential in Lake Michigan, which provides drinking water to over 10 million people. These data suggest that widespread increases in DOM and consequent browning of surface waters reduce the potential for solar UV inactivation of pathogens, and increase exposure to infectious diseases in humans and wildlife.

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“…Associations between temperature and salmonellosis [20] and rainfall and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis [21], [22] as well as distinct seasonal disease patterns [16] suggest that climate variability is an important determinant of enteric disease. Importantly, the need for increased research around climate change and infectious disease risks to inform adaptation responses in New Zealand has been identified as a priority [23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

et al. 2013

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BackgroundEvaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases.ObjectivesTo examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand.MethodsAssociations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.ResultsNo climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β = 0.130, SE = 0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β = −0.008, SE = 0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher.ConclusionsAlthough spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

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The impact of climate variability and change on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis rates in New Zealand

Cited by 52 publications

References 32 publications

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

Seasonality in Human Zoonotic Enteric Diseases: A Systematic Review

Climate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters

Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

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