The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom

Abstract

This study offers a descriptive overview of changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 crisis in a sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The data were collected between 27 March and 7 April 2020. RESULTS Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child. In Italy, however, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in the other countries, and the proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans is lower. Moreover, across countries the demographic characteristics of individuals appear to be associated with fertility plans in different ways. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by COVID-19. In the United Kingdom, the individuals that most frequently abandoned their fertility plans are those who expect the crisis to have a dramatic negative effect on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we do not observe a clear pattern of revision of fertility plans. CONTRIBUTION These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, possibly due to the different economic, demographic, and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts in particular appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova

“…Unfortunately this was not possible with the data at hand. There are longitudinal panels which offer such data in high income countries (For example see Luppi et al (2020)). We are unaware of any such longitudinal data for middle income countries however and the impact of the pandemic on fertility in such a context was the main focus of this paper.…”

“…Despite this there is currently little empirical data on the access to sexual and reproductive health services during the pandemic in low and middle income countries. The implicit assumption appears to be that access to family services in high income countries would be unaffected by the pandemic and associated restrictions on movement and businesses (Aassve et al, 2020;Luppi, Arpino Rosina, 2020. The rationale for this belief is somewhat understandable as some forms of contraception are readily available.…”

“…Most of the existing research on the impact of the pandemic on fertility behaviour has been concentrated on developed economies (Luppi et al 2020). Aassve et al (2020) argue that the impact of the pandemic on fertility will largely be shaped by the socio-economic context of individuals.…”

Family Formation and Dissolution During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From South Korea

“…If COVID-19 causes economic difficulties for households and amplifies infection concerns in hospitals, even married households may be reluctant to give birth. Luppi, Arpino, and Rosina (2020) show that the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affects young people's fertility plans in European countries. For these reasons, we expect that the decline in marriages due to COVID-19 will continue for the time being, and the negative effects of COVID-19 on fertility rates will begin to appear soon.…”

COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis

“…Thus, current scholarship has been able only to speculate about possible consequences in these domains, although insights can be gleaned from relevant historical events, for example the 2008 economic recession [ 5 ] and the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic [ 6 – 8 ]. Surveys performed during the lockdown have produced useful information about fertility intentions and changes therein as a result of the pandemic [ 9 ], but they cannot yet provide evidence about fertility realization. To gain further insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for demographic-related terms changed during lockdowns in Europe and the United States.…”