The impact of Covid-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system: a scenario analysis

Marcellusi, Andrea; Fabiano, Gianluca; Sciattella, Paolo; Andreoni, Massimo; Mennini, Francesco Saverio

doi:10.1101/2021.06.08.21258561

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…A previous epidemiological study aimed to simulate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021 (Marcellusi et al , 2021). Hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Without a doubt, in these crisis scenarios, economic forecasting becomes exceptionally challenging. Specific, the range of forecasters’ estimates for Italian GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 is indeed exceptionally wide: the output fall projected for this year ranges between –6% and –15%, the recovery in 2021 from 2% to 13% (Bank of Italy, 2021; Marcellusi et al , 2021). Uncertainty is similarly high in the other Euro-area countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

Mennini

Magni

Daniele

et al. 2021

JKM

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Purpose This paper aims to estimate the delay or timely effects of the national vaccination strategy for COVID-19 on Italian gross domestic product (GDP). By adopting a knowledge management lens, the study highlights the importance of “time” for Italian recovery. Indeed, recovering an adequate growth rate is crucial for the future of employment, well-being and management of Italian public debt. Design/methodology/approach This study applies an epidemiological model of a universal access vaccination programme against COVID-19. The economic model is based on the time-shift of available quarterly projections deriving from the expected delay or acceleration of the national vaccination plan against COVID-19. Findings The basic concept underlying the scenario analysis is that the sustainability of the expected recovery of the Italian economy due to the COVID-19 shock, and consequently the growth of the GDP, is time-dependent on the rollout of the national vaccination plan. Research limitations/implications A delay in the vaccination campaign could have a twofold negative impact on the growth of the Italian gross product: it reduces the quarterly growth over the previous year in the short term and it delays the quarterly upwards trend over the next two years. Policymakers and practitioners are called to promptly face new dynamic scenarios due to public and economic policies to fight the COVID-19 crisis. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt of research that focuses attention on the synchrony between the economic time necessary for recovery and the real-time necessary to achieve vaccination coverage for the restart of production activities.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

Mennini

Magni

Daniele

et al. 2021

JKM

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on the Italian Healthcare System: A Scenario Analysis

et al. 2022

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Background and Objective During 2020, the only instruments for fighting against the pandemic peaks were lockdowns, physical distancing, closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and travel restrictions. The new vaccination strategy adopted in Italy in 2021 represented a new perspective for policymakers. Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy on the national healthcare system. Methods An epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. Costs were estimated using hospital admissions from the Policlinico of Tor Vergata Hospital in Rome. Two scenarios were tested, one with vaccination and the second without. Results The roll-out of vaccinations to protect against COVID-19 was estimated to prevent 52,115 deaths in 2021, 45.2% less than what was expected in the absence of immunisation. Based on the assumptions underlying the two epidemiological scenarios, our model predicted an overall reduction of 2.4 million hospital admissions and 259,000 ICU admissions (74.9% and 71.3% less, respectively, than the world without vaccinations between June and December 2021). Overall, in Italy, the model estimated over €3.0 billion costs of hospitalisations due to COVID-19 in 2020. In 2021, vaccines prevented around 36% of the overall costs. Conclusions This is the first study highlighting the effect of vaccines on the Italian healthcare system in terms of avoided cases, hospitalisations and costs. Our results have the potential to inform policymakers and the general population on the benefits of vaccinations. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40261-022-01127-9.

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Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic’s First Two Years in Italy

Beccia

Pilla

Causio

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Italy was the first country in the western world to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, arguably among the worst-affected ones, counting 12 million cases and 150 thousand deaths two years since the first case. Facing new challenges, Italy has enacted different strategies and policies to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and treat those affected by COVID-19. This narrative review provided an overview of factors, measures, and actions that shaped Italy’s first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic by investigating epidemiological data and using a mixed-method approach. This narrative review aimed to summarize the most relevant aspects and measures and analyze available data to provide policymakers and healthcare providers with the instruments to learn from this pandemic and improve their preparedness for future pandemic events. The first two years of the pandemic differ in that, during the first year, significant necessary changes to the way health systems were organized were implemented, increasing healthcare spending and adopting social and physical distancing measures that were stricter than the ones adopted in the second year. However, as the pandemic progressed, increased knowledge of the virus and related variants, as well as the introduction of highly effective vaccines, which were not equally available to the whole population, resulted in a stratification of COVID-19 infections and deaths based on factors such as age, vaccination status, and individual susceptibility to the virus.

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The impact of Covid-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system: a scenario analysis

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on the Italian Healthcare System: A Scenario Analysis

Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic’s First Two Years in Italy

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