The Impact of Election Day Registration on Voter Turnout and Election Outcomes

Neiheisel, Jacob R.; Burden, Barry C.

doi:10.1177/1532673x11432470

“…36 In other words, in terms of net mobilization, preregistration appears to slightly advantage Republicans. This pattern is quite consistent with previous studies that have found institutional programs tend to register more Democrats (Herron and Smith 2012) but mobilize more Republicans (Cain and McCue 1985;Neiheisel and Burden 2012).…”

supporting

confidence: 82%

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

Holbein

¹

,

Hillygus

²

2014

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Recent research has cast doubt on the potential for various electoral reforms to increase voter turnout. In this article, we examine the effectiveness of preregistration laws, which allow young citizens to register before being eligible to vote. We use two empirical approaches to evaluate the impact of preregistration on youth turnout. First, we implement differencein-difference and lag models to bracket the causal effect of preregistration implementation using the [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012] (Bennion and Nickerson 2011;Hanmer et al. 2010;Herrnson et al. 2008;Niemi et al. 2009;Ponoroff and Weiser 2010). While it was once commonly assumed that reducing legal obstacles to voting would inevitably lead to higher turnout (Burnham 1987;Lijphart 1997; Powell 1986; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980) We wish to thank the National Science Foundation (Grant #SES-1416816) for their generous support for this project. In addition, we wish to thank Barry C. Burden, Michael McDonald, Steven A. Snell, and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback. Finally, we wish to thank Matthew Tyler for his invaluable work as a research assistant. Data and code for replicating our results can be found in the AJPS Data Archive on Dataverse (http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/ajps). depress political engagement (Burden et al. 2014). As one scholar succinctly put it, "non-participants are not likely to flood the polls simply because registration barriers diminish" (Timpone 1998, 155).An electoral reform that has nonetheless gained momentum in recent years is preregistration, whereby individuals younger than 18 are able to complete their registration application so that they are automatically added to the registration rolls once they come of age. Preregistration laws have been implemented in a dozen states, debated in at least 19 others in the last 5 years, and proposed in the U.S. Congress (2004). The policy is of particular salience and controversy in North Carolina, where preregistration was implemented with wide bipartisan support in 2009 and then abruptly repealed 4 years later by a newly elected Republican majority in the state legislature.1 Allegations swirled that the repeal was an attempt to impede future turnout among young voters, who had disproportionately voted Democratic in the 2012 election.2 On both sides of the aisle, policy makers seemed to assume that preregistration would increase youth Furthermore, recent scholarly research evaluating other electoral reforms offers a rather bleak outlook for the potential to increase citizen engagement through institutional changes. In this article, we estimate the causal effect of preregistration on youth turnout using two complementary approaches. First, using a nationally representative, pooled cross-section from the 2000-2012 Current Population Survey, we implement a difference-in-difference approach. We supplement this with lag models to create bracketed estimates of preregistration's impact (Angrist and Pischke 2008;Manski 1990...

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“…Recent research argues that election laws are endogenous to political participation (Erikson and Minnite ; Hanmer ), either due to simultaneity (i.e., reforms result as responses to turnout) or to complex, not well‐understood networks of unobserved variables (e.g., motivation). For example, quasi‐experimental studies of the impact of Election Day registration have shown marked differences to observational studies on the same topic (Keele and Minozzi ; Neiheisel and Burden ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even within federal constraints, there remains considerable variation across states in the ease of voter registration. Political scientists have long debated the extent to which voter turnout might be fostered or hindered by various electoral rules, such as registration windows (Brians and Grofman ; Hanmer ; Keele and Minozzi ; Leighley and Nagler ; Neiheisel and Burden ), voter identification restrictions (Alvarez, Bailey and Katz ; Atkeson et al. ; Erikson and Minnite ; Mycoff, Wagner and Wilson ; Vercellotti and Anderson 2010), or online registration tools (Bennion and Nickerson ; Hanmer et al.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

Holbein

¹

,

Hillygus

²

2015

American J Political Sci

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Recent research has cast doubt on the potential for various electoral reforms to increase voter turnout. In this article, we examine the effectiveness of preregistration laws, which allow young citizens to register before being eligible to vote. We use two empirical approaches to evaluate the impact of preregistration on youth turnout. First, we implement differencein-difference and lag models to bracket the causal effect of preregistration implementation using the [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012] (Bennion and Nickerson 2011;Hanmer et al. 2010;Herrnson et al. 2008;Niemi et al. 2009;Ponoroff and Weiser 2010). While it was once commonly assumed that reducing legal obstacles to voting would inevitably lead to higher turnout (Burnham 1987;Lijphart 1997; Powell 1986; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980) We wish to thank the National Science Foundation (Grant #SES-1416816) for their generous support for this project. In addition, we wish to thank Barry C. Burden, Michael McDonald, Steven A. Snell, and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback. Finally, we wish to thank Matthew Tyler for his invaluable work as a research assistant. Data and code for replicating our results can be found in the AJPS Data Archive on Dataverse (http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/ajps). depress political engagement (Burden et al. 2014). As one scholar succinctly put it, "non-participants are not likely to flood the polls simply because registration barriers diminish" (Timpone 1998, 155).An electoral reform that has nonetheless gained momentum in recent years is preregistration, whereby individuals younger than 18 are able to complete their registration application so that they are automatically added to the registration rolls once they come of age. Preregistration laws have been implemented in a dozen states, debated in at least 19 others in the last 5 years, and proposed in the U.S. Congress (2004). The policy is of particular salience and controversy in North Carolina, where preregistration was implemented with wide bipartisan support in 2009 and then abruptly repealed 4 years later by a newly elected Republican majority in the state legislature.1 Allegations swirled that the repeal was an attempt to impede future turnout among young voters, who had disproportionately voted Democratic in the 2012 election.2 On both sides of the aisle, policy makers seemed to assume that preregistration would increase youth Furthermore, recent scholarly research evaluating other electoral reforms offers a rather bleak outlook for the potential to increase citizen engagement through institutional changes. In this article, we estimate the causal effect of preregistration on youth turnout using two complementary approaches. First, using a nationally representative, pooled cross-section from the 2000-2012 Current Population Survey, we implement a difference-in-difference approach. We supplement this with lag models to create bracketed estimates of preregistration's impact (Angrist and Pischke 2008;Manski 1990...

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“…While higher turnout in the South after the collapse of the New Deal coalition was later shown to benefit Democrats, evidence suggests that the end of black disenfranchisement in the 1960s is responsible rather than a broadly applicable turnout-partisan dynamic (see Erikson 1995). Regional trends notwithstanding, most recent research has supported DeNardos conclusion that Democrats do not necessarily benefit from higher turnout (Citrin, Schickler, and Sides 2003;Franklin and Grier 1997;Hanmer 2007Hanmer , 2009Highton and Wolfinger 2001;Neiheisel and Burden 2012).…”

Section: The Partisan Effects Of Turnoutmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Increased Turnout Matters: Simulating the Partisan Impact of Full Turnout in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections

Burmila

¹

,

Birkhead

²

2017

Politics & Policy

1

0

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What if everyone voted? There is consensus that increased turnout generally, but not always, benefits Democrats, but recent evidence suggests that it is unlikely to change election outcomes considering the paucity of close races. For the first time, we examine this question using gubernatorial races along with Senate races from 2008 and 2010, estimating the behavior of nonvoters based on individual‐level data from known voters. We find that the substantive effect of full turnout is understated, particularly in close gubernatorial races. As these races determine partisan control of executive branches, we demonstrate that full turnout would result in more politically meaningful changes than suggested in previous research focusing only on Senate or presidential elections. While the empirical consequences of increased turnout are well understood, our findings suggest that the substantive effects continue to be understated. Related Articles

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The Impact of Election Day Registration on Voter Turnout and Election Outcomes

Cited by 62 publications

References 46 publications

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

When Increased Turnout Matters: Simulating the Partisan Impact of Full Turnout in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections

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