The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009

Altıntaş, Halil; Çetin, Rahmi; Öz, Bülent

doi:10.2478/v10033-011-0017-8

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The positive impact of volatility on exports is confirmed by A. Kasman and Kasman (2005), Ozturk and Kalyoncu (2009), Altintaş et al (2011), Nazlioglu (2012), Erdal et al, (2012), Cetin and Karakaya (2013) and Kilic and Yildirim (2015). One might argue that although volatility in the exchange comprises some risk it might provide the businesses with opportunities to reach greater profits (Grauwe, 1992; 1998; Van, 2011).…”

Section: The Theoretical and Empirical Facts Underpinning The Estimation Outputmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…For the time interval of 1980–2005, Ozturk and Kalyoncu (2009) find that the volatility has positive effect on Turkey’s export by conducting residual-based cointegration estimations. Altintaş et al (2011) searches the effect of real exchange rate volatility on aggregate Turkish exports during the period 1993–2009 by considering the ARDL cointegration technique and error correction model. According to their long-run estimation evidence, the real exchange rate volatility has a positive and statistically significant impact on Turkish exports.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical literature investigating the impact of the volatility on trade is still ambiguous. Some papers verify the negative relationship (Alam, Ahmed, & Shahbaz, 2017a; Aristotelous, 2001; Arize et al, 2000; Asseery & Peel, 1991; Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002; Bahmani-Oskooee, Bolhassani, & Hegerty, 2012; Ćorić & Pugh, 2010; Grier & Smallwood, 2007; Jantarakolica & Chalermsook, 2012; Kim, 2017; Serenis & Tsounis, 2013), while some other papers find positive relationship (Altintaş, Cetin, & Öz, 2011; Baum & Caglayan, 2010; Erdal, Erdal, & Esengün, 2012; Kim, 2017; McKenzie & Brooks, 1997; Ozturk & Kalyoncu, 2009; Soleymani & Chua, 2014; Tatliyer & Yigit, 2016). Some papers, as given in Tsen (2016), Baek (2013, 2014) and Alam, Ahmed, and Shahbaz (2017b) reach mixed or no consensus results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can Exchange Rate Volatility Influence the Export Positively? Evidence from Turkey Under the Regime Shifts

Bilgili

Ulucak

Soykan

et al. 2019

Global Business Review

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One might claim that a researcher can estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, considering the regime shifts. Otherwise, the relevant estimation output might be biased. This article examines the possible impact of exchange rate volatility on export in Turkey by employing the monthly data for the period 2003M1 and 2015M4. To this end, the article develops a model based on the demand for the traditional long-term aggregate export in which the influences of volatility of exchange rate, domestic income level, foreign income level and ratio of foreign price to domestic price on the real export level are observed. The article (a) first reviews the relevant literature evidence, (b) then follows the preliminary methodologies of unit root test with structural breaks or break point tests through regime shifts (c) and later, estimates the cointegration coefficients of Hatemi-J regime switching models, dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least square models to understand the behaviour of Turkish export in detail. The motivation of this article lies in two points. First, the article considers mainly the effect of exchange rate volatility on Turkish export by observing the possible existence of structural breaks and/or regime shifts. Second, the article follows both (C/S) regime switching model and (C/T) regime switching model, where (C/S) represents the model in which regime changes are observed in constant and in all regressors and where (C/T) denotes the model in which the regime shifts are estimated in constant along with trend of the Turkish export equation. The regime switching model (C/S) exhibits the positive effects of volatility, domestic income and price ratio (W/Tr) and negative impact of World income on Turkish export. The DOLS estimations support the (C/S) model outputs except the sign of price ratio. Eventually the article reveals that (a) the Turkish exporters appear to be risk lovers rather than risk-averse and (b) Turkish export should give more weight to MENA countries.

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Section: The Theoretical and Empirical Facts Underpinning The Estimation Outputmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Can Exchange Rate Volatility Influence the Export Positively? Evidence from Turkey Under the Regime Shifts

Bilgili

Ulucak

Soykan

et al. 2019

Global Business Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Their findings indicated that fluctuations in the exchange rate had a negative impact on non-oil exports (29). Moreover, investigating the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the exports of some Asian countries showed that the fluctuations in the exchange rate had negative effects on the exports of the investigated countries (30)(31)(32)(33). However in some other countries, the exchange rate is just a variable and in these countries, exports depend on factors such as specialty, high technology, and marketing; therefore, after investigating the supply and demand, it will become possible to recognize the results of exchange rate fluctuations in a country's economic realm.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Import and Export of Medicine in Iran from 2001 to 2014

et al. 2018

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Background:The exchange rate is one of the factors whose deviation from equilibrium amounts can lead to the instability in economy performance at the macro level. This study attempted to investigate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export of medicine in Iran during 2001-2014.Methods: This longitudinal study collected the required data in each season from 2001 to 2014. The sources of our data were Iran Central Bank, Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, and Food and Drug Administration. The exchange rate and some other variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), oil revenues, and the relative price of medicine import and export were used in the medicine export and import model. Finally, by using E-views software, version 8, an Engle-Granger approach was utilized to investigate the long-term relationship between the study variables. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to estimate the fluctuations in the exchange rate. Results:The results of estimating the equations by the use of the regression method indicated that every 1% increase in oil revenues would lead to a 0.13% increase in the medicine import in short-term. Every 1% increase in GDP would averagely lead to a 1.61% increase in the same variable in long-term. Moreover, the exchange rate fluctuations had a reverse effect on medicine exports so that a 1% increase in the exchange rate fluctuations would moderately result in a 0.17% decrease in medicine export in short-term. The relative price of import had no statistically significant relationship with any of the variables. Conclusions:Since medicine plays a specifically significant role in the health system and the pharmaceutical industry uses a large amount of exchange, fluctuations in the exchange rate have negative effects on the export of medicine; therefore, health officials and policy-makers need to pay much more attention to this issue.

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“…Because the exchange rate volatility has an immense spillover effects throughout the various macroeconomic indicators. Some researchers argue that the volatility of exchange rates would have an adverse effect on trade flows; the others argue that the volatility of exchange rates would encourage trade flows (Altintaş et al, 2011). Many prominent economists believe that undervaluation promotes growth because it motivates firms to invest in high productivity tradable industries, which increases overall productivity rates (Rodrik, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis

Dey¹,

Islam²

2021

IJEFR

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Most of the previously examined studies that investigated the repercussion of the trade balance to exchange rate mutation relied on the assumption that appreciation and depreciation behave symmetrically, recently several works have been conducted using the asymmetric analysis. In this work, we exhibited a model employing the disaggregated data (bilateral) of trade balance with the USA. In our pursuit, we endeavored to disclose a phenomenon of the J curve, is this pattern present in our trade balance and exchange rate bearing? In this article, first, we checked the stationary of data set and discovered the stationary employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips Peron then applying the ARDL bounds test of cointegration apropos to find out the long run co integrated equations and last of all, tried to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, while we used the ECM (error correction model). The Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality in a VAR framework has been applied to detect the causal direction. In our model, we have blazoned the negative short-run rapport between the exchange rate and trade balance in the bilateral data, whereas we have remarked a discrepant bearing in the long run and we did receive the evidence of the appearance of j pattern in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. Dispensing the error correction model, we found domestic higher price level hinders the trade balance in the short run, did not find any evidence of foreign income stimulate the export. Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality reveals the unidirectional causal effect from exchange rate to trade balance of Bangladesh with the USA.

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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009

Cited by 21 publications

References 41 publications

Can Exchange Rate Volatility Influence the Export Positively? Evidence from Turkey Under the Regime Shifts

Can Exchange Rate Volatility Influence the Export Positively? Evidence from Turkey Under the Regime Shifts

Investigating the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Import and Export of Medicine in Iran from 2001 to 2014

Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis

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