The impact of internal politics on Israel's reprisal policy during the 1950s

Kuperman, Ranan D.

doi:10.1080/01402390108437820

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Each of the rival's hostility measures is significant at the .001 level. Sprecher and DeRouen (2002; see also Wilkenfeld et al, 1972; Kuperman, 2001b) have also observed this type of pattern. This is also consistent with Blechman's (1972) event data analysis covering the years 1949–1969 that demonstrated that Israeli reprisals against its Arab neighbors were met with further hostility.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…States in an enduring rivalry care about the actions of each other, and are notably different from random pairs of states by their continued intensity and bellicosity (Diehl and Goertz, 2000). This adequately characterizes the situation in the Middle East, where the Arab–Israeli conflict can be observed on a daily basis (see Kuperman, 2001b). In addition to more traditional reciprocal relationships between rivals, the Middle East rivalries are intertwined as well.…”

Section: Enduring Rivalries and Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 91%

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The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998

Sprecher¹,

DeRouen²

2005

Foreign Policy Analysis

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Rivalry‐related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet and Arab and Israeli domestic unrest impact the propensity for these rivals to employ hostility against each other. We specify vector autoregression (VAR) models and negative binomial event count models with monthly levels of hostility as the dependent variables for the period 1948–1998. The results provide interesting foreign policy implications regarding the impact of Israeli domestic political structures on conflict dynamics in the Middle East. There is no evidence that the foreign policy behavior of Arab states becomes risk averse when Israeli leaders might need an external scapegoat. These findings are discussed in the context of other research on enduring rivalries and strategic interaction.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Enduring Rivalries and Hostilitiesmentioning

confidence: 91%

The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998

Sprecher¹,

DeRouen²

2005

Foreign Policy Analysis

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“…In the case of Strategy III (Tit‐for‐Tat), the risk of inducing escalation rather than deescalation is well known (Osgood 1962; Jervis, 1976:69, 100). Because of this, Israel's Foreign Minister and Prime Minister during the 1950s Moshe Sharett was strongly opposed to Israeli reprisals, fearing that rather than deterring the Arabs such actions intensified the conflict (Kuperman 2001a). Yet, also Strategies I and II are problematic.…”

Section: Three Hypothetical Strategies Of Asymmetric Warfarementioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies of Asymmetric Warfare and Their Implementation in the South Lebanese Conflict

Kuperman

2006

Foreign Policy Analysis

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Mao Tse‐Tung (1967 [1938]) proposed that militant groups could defeat state governments by maintaining an armed conflict in a protracted state of limited levels of violence. However, Mao was very vague regarding how to “persuade” the state's government not to escalate the conflict. This paper proposes three alternative strategies that could promote this objective. It will be illustrated with the aid of a longitudinal analysis of violent exchanges between the Israeli Defense Forces and Lebanese militants between 1991 and 1999 that both antagonists applied a modified version of one of these strategies.

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“…However, this policy has attracted considerable international criticism. In many instances when Arab civilians are killed, even Israelis have been critical (Kuperman, 2001b). But a large portion of the Israeli public view violent retaliations quite favorably.…”

Section: International and Domestic Constraints Influencing Israeli Military Retaliationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During this period, the British threatened at least once to bomb with its air force (stationed in Jordan and Cyprus) if Israel did not stop retaliating against Jordan. Prime Minister Ben Gurion treated such threats very seriously(Kuperman, 2001b).…”

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confidence: 99%

The Effect of Domestic and Foreign Pressure on Israeli Decisions To Use Limited Military Force

Kuperman

2003

Journal of Peace Research

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The influence of domestic politics on international relations is a very popular theme in US foreign policy analysis. Numerous studies have demonstrated that presidents sometimes tried to improve their public ratings by adopting populist militant foreign policies. The question is whether such behavior is characteristic of democracies in general, or limited to the United States. While there is no reason to assume that in other democracies, or even non-democratic regimes, aggressive actions against a foreign threat willlikewise receive popular support, other states that lack superpower capabilities do not have as much freedom of action as the United States. Smaller states must be more cautious in their behavior, since they are more susceptible to foreign pressure than the United States. This argument is illustrated by analyzing patterns of Israeli limited military actions against its neighbors between 1950 and 1982, which reveals that despite popular demands within the Israeli parliament to pursue more militant policies, the government tended to restrain its actions when faced with foreign pressure from the United States, Great Britain, and the United Nations Security Council.

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The impact of internal politics on Israel's reprisal policy during the 1950s

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998

The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948-1998

Strategies of Asymmetric Warfare and Their Implementation in the South Lebanese Conflict

The Effect of Domestic and Foreign Pressure on Israeli Decisions To Use Limited Military Force

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