“…Optimal job search models predict that, ceteris paribus, fully-informed rational jobseekers should be persuaded to change their behaviour before sanction application (Abbring et al, 2005). This effect is referred to as the ex-ante or threat effect of a sanction (see, for example, Arni et al, 2013;Griggs and Evans, 2010;McVicar, 2014). There is limited existing empirical research on the ex-ante effect of sanctions before they are applied.…”