The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes

Andersen, Per Dannemand; Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.013

Cited by 21 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In all these studies, the focus is on the individual and to a lesser extent on communities and social contexts. Analysis of future attitudes in terms of national identities and shared narratives about the past is found in [19,51,52]. The focus here is on entire nations or a racial identities.…”

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of this work has been carried out within English-speaking countries and is particularly suitable to the Australia setting [19,73,74]. It tends to see individual preferences towards economic management, government style, environmental protection, crime control and moral stands as highly clustered and closely related to ideological stances.…”

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Context is often implicitly defined by situations, locations, membership and expectations. For example, Andersen et al [19], discussed the impact of national traditions on perceptions of the future and distinguished an English-speaking cluster, which includes Australia, in which a relatively equal society comfortable with uncertainty is better suited than others to discuss long-term futures. Our main results confirm this image of a confident, forward-looking community, able to shape some components of its future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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Abstract:In four focus group exercises involving both forecasting and backcasting approaches, we gave approximately 100 Australian citizens the opportunity to discuss likely, desirable and feared futures to 2050. The image they paint is both coherent and consistent. Education, governance, personal attitudes and societal trends, rather than specific events, are drivers of a future which is perceived as being largely shaped by human choices. Innovation is believed to be more necessary in novel social arrangements than in further technology. The most feared futures arise from an amplification of trends already at play in the present: economic growth at the expense of the environment and quality of life, lack of equity, poor government, corporate greed, commercialism and erosion of social values. Economic and material growth does not feature in the most desired futures which are local, inclusive, peaceful, equitable and in some cases frugal. The visions and scenarios developed find a place within established foresight frameworks and global political narratives, but seem to lie at the fringe of current media and short-term political discourse. These results should not be interpreted as representative of the overall Australian population, but suggest that extending the analysis to the broader community could provide significant insights and enrich the discussion of important societal choices. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 223

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Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analysis: Interpreting Our Results Within Common Narratives mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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“…Second, the innovation systems literature emphasises that innovation systems and sectors cannot always be analysed independent of their national or territorial contexts [38], [49]. This is mirrored in the foresight literature, which has shown that national cultures and traditions are determinants of perceptions of the future and of how decision making takes place [2], [66]. Although foresight projects eventually want to derive a result that is aggregated across several countries, we must design the foresight process so that differences in national contexts can be examined or so that important details are not blurred by averaging across national or regional contexts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight

Andersen

Jensen

et al. 2014

Futures

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Highlights• We contribute to the theoretical underpinning and theory building in foresight • We investigate how elements of innovation system theory can contribute to foresight • We focus on foresight in industrial sectors as a domain overlapping public and corporate settings • External megatrends and internal trends and challenges for the Nordic facilities management sectorPriority setting for longer term research in a cross national (Nordic) setting Abstract: A number of studies have explored the interconnection between the foresight literature and the innovation system literature. This paper adds to these studies by investigating how theoretical elements of the innovation system approach can contribute to the design and practice of foresight processes. The paper originates in a foresight project in the Nordic facilities management sector. The goal of the foresight project was to identify the possible futures of the facilities management sector in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and, based on the findings, to establish a proposal for a common Nordic facilities management research agenda. The paper finds that three elements of the innovation system literature are of particular interest for the practice of foresight: innovation systems and context dependency, learning and user-producer interactions, and the role of knowledge and knowledge production. These elements are embedded into a simple sectoral innovation system model (including actors, knowledge flows, and the strategic environment).

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“…But there is still a chance that a number of inconsistencies between the narrative and numerical simulation models will occur. Some authors believe that achieving consistency between the narrative and numerical outputs is "…one of the weakest links" [99]. Along similar lines, Kosow has pointed out that, "….Overall, transformation rarely allows a perfect fit between the driving forces described by the storylines and those needed as input parameters by the models" [35].…”

Section: Pitfall: Missing the Connection Between The Narrative And Numentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation with which the strategies can be continuously developed. The contribution of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gapbetween strategic, tactical and operational levels of an organisation. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to work proactively with both the breadth and depth of strategies using a Danish knowledge intensive company as an example.

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The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes

Abstract: Abstract

Cited by 21 publications

References 16 publications

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight

Interactive foresight simulation

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