The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

Tett, Simon F. B.; Betts, Richard; Crowley, Thomas J.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Johns, T. C.; Jones, Andy; Osborn, Timothy J.; Öström, Elisabeth; Roberts, David L.; Woodage, Margaret J.

doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0165-1

Cited by 118 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…The model data were forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice distributions from the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) dataset (Rayner et al 2003) for the period 1978-99. In addition, the model included forcings from changing solar output, stratospheric aerosols from volcanic eruptions, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gases, land surface, and sulfate aerosols (Tett et al 2007). …”

Section: B Simulated Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Bias and Uncertainty in the HadAT-Adjusted Radiosonde Climate Record

et al. 2008

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Uncertainties in observed records of atmospheric temperature aloft remain poorly quantified. This has resulted in considerable controversy regarding signals of climate change over recent decades from temperature records of radiosondes and satellites. This work revisits the problems associated with the removal of inhomogeneities from the historical radiosonde temperature records, and provides a method for quantifying uncertainty in an adjusted radiosonde climate record due to the subjective choices made during the data homogenization.This paper presents an automated homogenization method designed to replicate the decisions made by manual judgment in the generation of an earlier radiosonde dataset [i.e., the Hadley Centre radiosonde temperature dataset (HadAT)]. A number of validation experiments have been conducted to test the system performance and impact on linear trends.Using climate model data to simulate biased radiosonde data, the authors show that limitations in the homogenization method are sufficiently large to explain much of the tropical trend discrepancy between HadAT and estimates from satellite platforms and climate models. This situation arises from the combination of systematic (unknown magnitude) and random uncertainties (of order 0.05 K decade Ϫ1 ) in the radiosonde data. Previous assessment of trends and uncertainty in HadAT is likely to have underestimated the systematic bias in tropical mean temperature trends. This objective assessment of radiosonde homogenization supports the conclusions of the synthesis report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), and associated research, regarding potential bias in tropospheric temperature records from radiosondes.

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Section: B Simulated Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Bias and Uncertainty in the HadAT-Adjusted Radiosonde Climate Record

et al. 2008

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“…First attempts to assimilate climate proxy information into models include the pioneering work of von Storch et al (2000), Hargreaves and Annan (2002), van der Schrier and Barkmeijer (2005), Goosse et al (2006Goosse et al ( , 2010, and Franke et al (2010). The proposed approaches can be roughly separated into three groups: the methods of von Storch et al and van der Schrier and Barkmeijer seek to push a model simulation towards a large-scale target state through nudging (von Storch et al, 2000) or using singular forcing vectors (van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Data assimilation is a promising approach to obtain climate reconstructions that are both consistent with observations of the past and with our understanding of the physics of the climate system as represented in the climate model used. Here, we investigate the use of ensemble square root filtering (EnSRF) -a technique used in weather forecasting -for climate reconstructions. We constrain an ensemble of 29 simulations from an atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) with 37 pseudo-proxy temperature time series. Assimilating spatially sparse information with low temporal resolution (semi-annual) improves the representation of not only temperature, but also other surface properties, such as precipitation and even upper air features such as the intensity of the northern stratospheric polar vortex or the strength of the northern subtropical jet. Given the sparsity of the assimilated information and the limited size of the ensemble used, a localisation procedure is crucial to reduce "overcorrection" of climate variables far away from the assimilated information.

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“…A linear trend is fitted over the period 850-2005 in the CONSTANT simulation, and this trend (À0.002K/century) is removed from each individual simulation before analysis. This is a standard procedure to ensure that model drift does not contaminate the attribution results (Tett et al, 2007).…”

Section: Appendix B: Details Of the Cesm-lme Climate Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

Owens

Lockwood

Hawkins

et al. 2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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-The Maunder minimum (MM) was a period of extremely low solar activity from approximately AD 1650 to 1715. In the solar physics literature, the MM is sometimes associated with a period of cooler global temperatures, referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus taken as compelling evidence of a large, direct solar influence on climate. In this study, we bring together existing simulation and observational studies, particularly the most recent solar activity and paleoclimate reconstructions, to examine this relation. Using northern hemisphere surface air temperature reconstructions, the LIA can be most readily defined as an approximately 480 year period spanning AD 1440-1920, although not all of this period was notably cold. While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

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The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

Cited by 118 publications

References 74 publications

Assessing Bias and Uncertainty in the HadAT-Adjusted Radiosonde Climate Record

Assessing Bias and Uncertainty in the HadAT-Adjusted Radiosonde Climate Record

An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

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