The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism

Abstract

The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. Two estimation techniques—a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moments estimator—are used to test the impact of various forms of political violence on tourism. Both models show strong evidence that human rights violations, conflict, and other politically motivated violent events negatively affect tourist arrivals. In a dynamic model, even if autocratic regimes do not resort to violence, they have lower numbers of tourist arrivals than more democratic regimes. Results also show evidence for intraregional, negative spillover, and cross-regional substitution effects.

Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?

“…The fundamental difference between a terrorist campaign and a civil war is that the former does not hold and manage territory within a nation state. 6 The ICRG internal conflict index is also used in a large number of studies on political stability (e.g., Gupta et al, 2004;Jinjarak, 2009;Bjorvatn and Farzanegan, 2013, 2015, Long, 2008Neumayer, 2004;Lessmann, 2016). We have also examined our hypothesis by using an objective measure of conflict, namely, the maxintyearv413 variable in the UCDP Monadic Conflict Onset and Incidence Dataset (Themnér andWallensteen, 2014 andGleditsch et al, 2002).…”

Issues of Safety and Security: New Challenging to Malaysia Tourism Industry

“…While research by Neumayer in 2004, concluded that political violence including terrorism incident, human rights violation and bank's violent events consistently has a negative impact on tourism arrivals since tourist naturally are sensitive to events of political violence in their holiday destination because such event jeopardize a relaxed and unconcerned holiday [15].…”

Do Political Instability, Terrorism, and Corruption Have Deterring Effects on Tourism Development Even in the Presence of Unesco Heritage? A Cross-Country Panel Estimate

“…Because tourism is a labor-intensive industry, many job activities are related to the supply chain of the sector such as food delivery services, production and sale of handicrafts, recreational activities, and construction of tourism infrastructures (United Nations World 588 YAP AND SAHA 2006;Neumayer, 2004;Sönmez, 1998); however, whether terrorism and corruption will affect tourists' decisions to travel still remains puzzling. Tourists in modern days would prefer new travel experience particularly to those Third World destinations that may have considerably high level of corruption but may not necessarily be politically unstable.…”

“…Therefore, it is crucial that a demand model should incorporate political risk indicators that evidently play a significant influence on tourism businesses (e.g., Hoti, McAleer, & Shareef, 2007;Neumayer, 2004), especially in countries that contain UNESCO-listed heritage. The model not only aims to generate accurate tourism forecasts but also to give correct estimations of the long-term financial commitments to rebuild and sustain heritage tourism in highly political unstable countries.…”

“…First, it is the propensity for regime or government change; second, it can be related to the political upheaval or violence in a society; and third, it focuses on instability in government policies that are subject to frequent changes (Darity, 2008, Hoti, McAleer, & Shareef, 2005Narayan, 2005;Neumayer, 2004). Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, there is no single empirical study that investigates the impact of political instability, terrorism, and corruption on tourism demand in the presence of historical and natural heritage.…”