The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan

Hasanov, Fakhri

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1784305

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The literature focusing on the natural resources-growth nexus in post-communist transition economies show parallels between them and developing economies, whereby surplus labor expressed in disguised unemployment is one of them. Most cross country studies and individual case studies contemplating natural resource exporting transition economies detect the negative growth effect mainly over the symptoms of Dutch disease in the petroleum exporting transition economies (Oskenbayev and Karimov 2013;Hasanov 2010;Bayramov and Conway 2010;Oomes and Kalcheva 2007;Dobryanskaya and Turkisch 2009). In the case of the Gulf countries, which are not labor surplus but rather labor shortage economies, the issue of resource movement is also less severe because of the extremely low labor intensity of the petroleum industry which dominates the extractives in the Gulf region (Sadik-Zada et al 2019).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The central banks save the revenues in foreign currency then these revenues do not affect the local output in any of the sectors (Pesaran 1984). Despite the fact that macroeconomic sterilization belongs to the standard tool of the modern central banks and most natural resource reliant nations have established sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) to prevent consumptive or allocative use of the resources, recent econometric analyses find strong evidence for the appreciation pressure on the local currencies in such contexts (Hasanov 2010). SWFs have to assure that natural resource revenues are invested and not directed towards allocative projects.…”

Section: Purely Economic and Institutional Transmission Channels Of Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective

2019

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This study puts forward a model of a multisector economy and embeds it in a novel theoretical framework to address the relationship between commodity revenues and manufacturing output with a special focus on the role of the agricultural sector. The three-sector model lays the groundwork for analyzing policy choices in more complex sectoral settings. Based on the theoretical analysis, the study identifies the weight of the individual economic sectors in the public revenue generation as a determinant of the magnitude of rent seeking epitomized in the crowding out effect of investments in manufacturing. We find that enclave agriculture contributes to the deindustrialization pressure in the face of natural resource windfalls. The central finding of the multisector analysis is the conclusion that not diversification per se but rather a diversification with the substantial domestic factor or market orientation has the capability to limit the magnitude of deindustrialization. For the empirical validation of the theoretical findings, the study employs fixed effects, fully modified OLS, dynamic common correlated effects estimators and dynamic fixed effects estimators for the dataset of 113 developing and transition economies for 1963–2014 period. The estimations reveal that natural resource revenues correspond with a higher level of the manufacturing sector output. In the economies with a low level of economic diversification, commodity bonanza leads however to the shrinkage of the manufacturing. In the commodity revenue dependent settings, nevertheless, agricultural sector exports have a negative impact on the performance of the manufacturing sector. These findings are in line with the predictions of the theoretical model.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Purely Economic and Institutional Transmission Channels Of Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective

2019

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“…In commodity‐based economies, higher (lower) commodity prices could lead to appreciations (depreciations) of the currency. For example, Habib and Kalamova (), Kalcheva and Oomes (), Jahan‐Parvar and Mohammadi (), Korhonen and Juurikkala (), Hasanov () find that the real exchange rates in oil producing countries appreciate in the long run as a result of higher oil prices. Since the seminal paper of Backus et al.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competitive devaluations in commodity‐based economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group

Caporale

Costamagna²,

Rossini

2017

Review Development Economics

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This paper investigates whether there is an S-curve in Colombia using bilateral and disaggregated quarterly data for the period 1991 to 2014. More precisely, the shortrun effects of a depreciation on the trade balance (TB) are analyzed in 27 industries covered by the Pacific Alliance Group free trade agreement. The S-curve found in sectors representing 30 percent of total industrial production suggests that in these cases competitive devaluations have a positive effect on the TB in the short run. Our findings have important policy implications: since only large competitive devaluations can restore TB equilibrium, industrial restructuring would appear to be a more sensible strategy, though this cannot be achieved in the short run and is instead a medium-to long-term goal.

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“…Bu modellerle ilgili literatürdeki yaygın yaklaşım; 1 pozitif olduğunda ya da petrol fiyatlarından reel efektif döviz kuruna doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edildiğinde Hollanda Hastalığının var olduğuna karar verilmesidir (Oomes ve Kalcheva, 2007;Yürük, 2008;Hasanov 2010;Mercan ve Göçer, 2014) . Benzer bir durum tarafımızdan Model (2), (3) ve (4) için de uyarlanmıştır.…”

Section: Modellerunclassified

“…, Hollanda Hastalığı riskini Rusya için Cochrane-Orcutt yöntemiyle araştırdığı çalışmada, petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatlarındaki artışların reel efektif döviz kurunu yükselttiğini, reel efektif döviz kurunun işsizlik ile pozitif, ihracat ile negatif korelasyonlu olduğunu belirleyerek, Rusya ekonomisinde Hollanda Hastalığı belirtilerinin olduğunu ifade etmiştir Hasanov (2010),. petrol fiyatlarının, reel efektif döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisini Azerbaycan'ın 2000:Q1-2007:Q4 dönemi verileriyle ARDL yöntemiyle incelediği çalışmada; petrol fiyatlarındaki %1'lik artışın reel efektif döviz kurunu %0.7 artırdığını belirtmiştir.…”

unclassified

Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Ekonomik Performansının Hollanda Hastalığı Yönünden İncelenmesi

Sezer¹

2017

berj

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Ekonomi için yararlı gelişmelerin zamanla zararlı sonuçlar vermeye başlamasını ifade eden Hollanda Hastalığı, özellikle doğal kaynak zengini ülkelerde görülebilmektedir. Sahip oldukları petrol ve doğal gaz gibi kaynaklar sayesinde yüksek gelir elde ederek bugüne kadar gelen Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri de acaba ileride böyle bir sorunla karşılaşır mı? Eğer böyle bir risk varsa, çözüm önerileri ve alınması gereken tedbirler nelerdir? Makalede bu sorulara cevap aranmaktadır. Çalışmada 1998-2015 dönemi için panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının tespit edildiği çalışmada, serilerin durağanlığı çoklu yapısal kırılmalı PANKPSS testiyle incelenmiş ve serilerin düzeyde durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Regresyon analizlerinde Hollanda Hastalığının varlığıyla ilgili kesin bir sonuca ulaşılamamıştır. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri, Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) yöntemiyle incelenmiş ve bu ülkelerde Hollanda Hastalığının var olduğu yönünde kanıtlar elde edilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında, doğal kaynak ihracatına dayalı ekonomik modellerin taşıdığı riskler ve alınması gereken tedbirler, dünyadaki iyi uygulamalar eşliğinde açıklanmıştır. Çalışmanın, ilgili ülke politikacılarının dikkatini bir kez daha bu konuya çekerek, geç olmadan gerekli tedbirleri almalarına ve sürdürülebilir, yüksek bir ekonomik büyüme modeline geçmelerine katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir.

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The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan

Cited by 20 publications

References 43 publications

Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective

Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective

Competitive devaluations in commodity‐based economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group

Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Ekonomik Performansının Hollanda Hastalığı Yönünden İncelenmesi

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