The impact of Russo-Ukrainian war, COVID-19, and oil prices on global food security

AL-Rousan, Nadia; AL-Najjar, Hazem; AL-Najjar, Dana

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29279

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…However, prior to the Ukraine-Russia war, Granger causality did not demonstrate an imbalanced link between positive and negative shocks to oil prices and positive and negative shocks to food inflation. This results are consistent with Abay et al (2023), Al-Rousan et al (2024, Bagchi & Paul, 2023;Hanif et al, 2024;He et al, 2023;Hamulczuk et al, 2023;Headey & Hirvonen, 2023;Kilfoyle, 2023;Lin et al, 2023;Raga et al, 2024;Rashad et al, 2023;Tass et al, 2024;Zhang et al, 2024. According to Al-Rousan et al (2024, Kim (2022), andPaudel et al (2023) explain that the war is between Russia and Ukraine significantly correlated with food, cereals, meat, and oils prices, with WTI and Brent crude showing a strong relationship.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…The fact that oil prices have always fluctuated has undoubtedly increased the pressure on politicians to take action. As a result, a vast body of research focuses on how Food Price could be affected by shocks to the price of oil (Abay et al, 2023;Al-Rousan et al, 2024;Bagchi & Paul, 2023;Hamulczuk et al, 2023;Headey & Hirvonen, 2023;Kilfoyle, 2023;Raga et al, 2024;Rashad et al, 2023;Tass et al, 2024;Zhang et al, 2024). Studies indicate that oil price shocks during the Ukraine-Russian war negatively affect food prices in both petroleum-importing and petroleum-exporting countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oil Price Shochs'S Asymmetric Responses on Food Inflation in Middle East and North Africa Countries in the time of Ukraine-Russia Crisis

2024

Futurity Economics&Law

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The war between Russia and Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, and it has lasted for more than a year. The world economy has been negatively influenced by the war and the series of events that followed it in a number of ways, including the stock market, and trade. The energy market and food prices have seen a significant decline. This empirical study examined the unequal effects of oil price shocks on food inflation in MENA countries during the Russian aggression using a Panel Asymmetric Granger Causality Test and a Non-linear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. Empirical evidence demonstrated the asymmetry between the inflation of food and oil, with the majority of the effects of oil price shocks being positive on food inflation. The empirical data supporting the short- and long-term asymmetries in food and oil prices was revealed, with the majority of the evidence pointing to the beneficial impacts of oil price shocks on food inflation. Additionally, the estimations indicated that the food prices rose in both eras (after the war between Russia and Ukraine and when the complete sample was chosen) in response to increases in the price of oil.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Price Shochs'S Asymmetric Responses on Food Inflation in Middle East and North Africa Countries in the time of Ukraine-Russia Crisis

2024

Futurity Economics&Law

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“…Aside from being a safe haven, oil can also be a means of hedging (Aloui et al, (2013) and Liu et al, (2020)). Al-Rousan et al, (2024) found that linear regression analysis suggest a positive influence of the Russia -Ukraine conflict, Brent oil on food price indices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nexus Between Oil, Gold Price and Dxy Index on Indonesian Stock Market During Geopolitical Events (2022 – 2024)

Denie,

Surachman,

Indrawati

et al. 2024

RGSA

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Objective: The aim of this study is to observe the impact of oil, gold, and the DXY index on the Indonesian stock market during geopolitical events in 2022-2024. Theoretical Framework: Rising political tensions also have a major impact on global currencies, financial market and commodity market. This event lead to uncertainty which increasing the investment risk. Hence, geopolitical events could affect stock return in capital market. Method: The data used consists of daily Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closing data, WTI daily closing prices, gold daily closing prices, and DXY closing data from 24 February 2022 – 31 December 2022 and 14 April 2024 – 30 April 2024. Data obtained form Bloomberg. The analysis technique used was GARCH (1.1). Results and Discussion: The results showed that WTI oil price changes had significant positive effects on stock return in Indonesia. However, gold price changes had insignificant positive effects on stock returns in Indonesia during geopolitical events, while the DXY Index had insignificant, negative effects. Research Implications: Investors and traders in Indonesia Stock Exchange should consider oil price changes for investing in stocks during geopolitical events. Originality/Value: This study contributes to literatures regarding the stock market turbulence during geopolitical events and its effect toward stock return. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by the insignificanct effect of gold and DXY toward stock return, while WTI has significant effect toward stock return.

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Parsing the Performance of Stock Market Indices Amidst COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War: A Comparative Study of DSEX, Nifty-50, and KSE-100

Bairagi,

Fatema,

Kumar Ghosh

et al. 2024

EJBMR

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The primary objective of this investigation is to assess the performance of the benchmark indices in the stock markets of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, denoted by DSEX (Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index), Nifty-50 (National Stock Exchange Fifty), and KSE-100 (Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index), respectively. Data is meticulously gathered across distinct periods, namely the pre-COVID, the COVID-19, and the concurrent COVID-19 era along with the Russia-Ukraine War period, and amid the consequent global ongoing financial crises. The study encompasses information spanning from July 2, 2013 to May 9, 2023, employing descriptive statistics, where both mean returns and risk-adjusted returns were calculated consecutively. The evaluation of diversification among the indices during the specified periods is conducted through descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation. The findings of this study indicate that all the indices exhibited negative mean returns during the COVID-19 phase. Furthermore, both mean returns and risk-adjusted returns of the indices witnessed substantial increments amid the inflationary environment concurrent with the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War periods. OLS estimation results suggest an absence of a discernible diversification relationship among the indices. In summary, our results underscore the dynamic nature of index prices across diverse temporal and global crisis scenarios. These implications offer valuable insights for investors and stockholders, enabling them to discern hedging opportunities and identify diversifiable indices within the global stock markets across disparate periods and crises.

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The impact of Russo-Ukrainian war, COVID-19, and oil prices on global food security

Cited by 4 publications

References 42 publications

Oil Price Shochs'S Asymmetric Responses on Food Inflation in Middle East and North Africa Countries in the time of Ukraine-Russia Crisis

Oil Price Shochs'S Asymmetric Responses on Food Inflation in Middle East and North Africa Countries in the time of Ukraine-Russia Crisis

Nexus Between Oil, Gold Price and Dxy Index on Indonesian Stock Market During Geopolitical Events (2022 – 2024)

Parsing the Performance of Stock Market Indices Amidst COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War: A Comparative Study of DSEX, Nifty-50, and KSE-100

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