The impact of severe drought on survival, fecundity, and population persistence in an endangered amphibian

Cayuela, Hugo; Arsovski, Dragan; Bonnaire, Éric; Duguet, Rémi; Joly, Pierre; Besnard, Aurélien

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1246

Cited by 45 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Concerning the pattern found in POP1 and POP2, this result is in line with two recent studies that show that extreme droughts (in 2011 in northern and southern France) may decrease adult survival in B . variegata (Cayuela et al ., , 2016b). A similar pattern has also been found in other frog and salamander species (Berven, ; Church et al ., ; Rittenhouse et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Cayuela

Arsovski

Thirion

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Cayuela

Arsovski

Thirion

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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“…Whether a consequence of physiological stress, reductions in food resources, or increased vulnerability to predators, survival dropped precipitously when surface-water availability was low, typically when pools began to dry. Although other studies have linked survival of post-metamorphic amphibians to precipitation totals summed over a year or season or to binary indicators of drought (Cayuela, Arsovski, Bonnaire, et al, 2016;Cayuela, Arsovski, Thirion, et al, 2016;Church et al, 2007;Grafe et al, 2004;Griffiths, Sewell, & McCrea, 2010), our study provides evidence that survival rates of amphibians can vary markedly within a season in response to shortterm, local changes in hydrologic conditions.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 59%

“…Decreases in recruitment resulting from reductions in surface water are unsurprising given that most amphibians rely on water for reproduction and larval development (Duellman & Trueb, 1986). What is less clear, however, is the extent to which drought or surface-water availability affects survival of juveniles and adults (hereafter, post-metamorphic individuals) and contributes to population declines (but see Cayuela, Arsovski, Bonnaire, et al, 2016;Church, Bailey, Wilbur, Kendall, & Hines, 2007;Grafe, Kaminsky, Bitz, Lüssow, & Linsenmair, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface‐water availability governs survival of an amphibian in arid mountain streams

2018

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Declines in amphibian populations worldwide have been linked to multiple factors, including recent changes in climate. Changes in precipitation, for example, can alter the availability of aquatic resources that are required by many amphibians for successful reproduction and larval development. Changes in climate have the potential to affect other important demographic parameters, particularly for species that are active year‐round. Therefore, we studied survival of post‐metamorphic (snout‐vent length ≥50 mm) lowland leopard frogs (Lithobates yavapaiensis) in arid mountain canyons, where surface water is limited and its availability can vary markedly within and among years. Between 2013 and 2015, we surveyed frogs 33–74 times in each of six stream reaches distributed across two catchments in southern Arizona and used capture–recapture methods based on in situ photographs to identify individuals. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to explore how surface‐water availability, weather and vegetation influenced seasonal variation in apparent survival of post‐metamorphic individuals. Overall, mean annual apparent survival in this dynamic, arid environment was low (trueϕ^ = 0.11, 95% confidence interval = 0.07–0.14). Survival varied with ambient temperature, dew point, perimeter groundcover and year, but especially with changes in surface‐water availability. When water levels were at or near 100% of maximum pool depths, mean monthly survival was high (trueϕ^ ≥ 0.88); when water levels were at 50%, survival decreased modestly (trueϕ^ = 0.81) and when at 20%, survival dropped sharply (trueϕ^ = 0.36). A decrease in survival of post‐metamorphic frogs in response to severe drought almost certainly contributed to the extirpation of frogs from one catchment in 2015. We anticipate that predicted increases in frequency and severity of drought will decrease the probability that lowland leopard frogs persist in this region over the long‐term, as droughts are expected to increase local extirpations and limit the ability of individuals to disperse through an increasingly arid landscape.

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“…These changes have altered demographic rates (e.g., Reading , Cayuela et al. ), shifted phenology of life‐history events (e.g., Todd et al. , Benard ), and reduced the quantity and quality of aquatic environments on which many amphibians depend (McMenamin et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought‐mediated extinction of an arid‐land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Zylstra

Swann

Hossack

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence–absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site‐level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high‐elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate‐related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid‐land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

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The impact of severe drought on survival, fecundity, and population persistence in an endangered amphibian

Cited by 45 publications

References 48 publications

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Surface‐water availability governs survival of an amphibian in arid mountain streams

Drought‐mediated extinction of an arid‐land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

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