The impact of soil moisture on precipitation downscaling in the Euro-Mediterranean area

Hertig, Elke; Tramblay, Yves; Romberg, Karin; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Merkenschlager, Christian

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4304-2

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The Mediterranean region is a transitional zone between dry and wet climates, and in these semiarid areas the direct evaporation from the soil plays an important role on the surface energy balance, with evapotranspiration strongly dependent on available soil moisture (Koster et al, 2004;Seneviratne et al, 2010;Taylor, 2015). Consequently, the Mediterranean has been identified as a region with a strong coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface, with feedback effects of soil moisture on temperature and precipitation (Seneviratne et al, 2010;Knist et al, 2017;Hertig et al, 2019). Indeed, soil moisture is a key variable in the hydrological cycle for the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff and also for the mass and energy balance between land surface and the atmosphere (Seneviratne et al, 2010;Brocca et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Knist et al (2017) evaluated the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) RCMs over Europe using GLEAM (Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model) and FLUXNET reference data. Hertig et al (2019) tested the ability of two GCMs (CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-MR) from CMIP5 to reproduce soil moisture dynamics as modeled by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) over Europe. If the main patterns of seasonal soil moisture were found to be adequately represented from climate models, these studies also pointed out the large multimodel variability in particular in the transitional climate zones.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Mimeau

Tramblay

Brocca

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts, and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations for a 10-year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 ∘C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 % and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October with an average of +28 d of soil moisture drought per year.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Mimeau

Tramblay

Brocca

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…We identify the high correlation centers manually in the correlation maps. The nal screened predictors by OGB are the raw values of the large-scale variables, thus the physical relation to the predictand is easier to explain when compared to the Principle Components Analysis (PCA) (Hertig et al, 2019;Pryor and Schoof, 2019) based screening.…”

Section: Statistical Downscaling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downscaling Winter Daily PM2.5 Concentrations From Large-Scale Meteorological Dataset -a Case Study for a City in North China

Liu¹,

Yang²,

Zhao³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Winter air pollution in North China becomes a serious environmental problem in recent years, which has aroused a widespread concern. Estimating PM2.5 concentration is necessary for the government to take actions in leading times, or to reproduce the historical values. In this study, we attempt to construct statistical downscaling (SD) models based on large-scale meteorological variables, to estimate the PM2.5 in Jiaozuo, a city in the heavy-pollution area of North China. Predictors were screened from large-scale meteorological variables, by selecting the grid boxes with the values highly correlated to the PM2.5 in Jiaozuo. Correlation maps show that PM2.5 is usually related to comparatively low pressure and high relative humidity at the lower atmosphere and comparatively high pressure at the upper atmosphere, high air temperature in all the troposphere and weak winter monsoonal winds. After training the SD models with the winter samples during 2014-2017, the daily PM2.5 is simulated with correlation coefficients of 0.607 (mean) and 0.548 (maximum) to the observation, by the logarithmic transformed PM2.5 values. The SD models can roughly reflect the daily variation of PM2.5. Compared to the PM2.5 model based on the local meteorological data, larger correlations are obtained (0.57 versus 0.51-0.53, without logarithmic transformation). In the days of “APEC Blue Sky” and the “SCO Blue Sky” with emissions largely reduced by strict controls on industry and traffic in surrounding areas, low PM2.5 is indeed observed, however, the SD models without considering any change of emissions also produced low PM2.5 simulations, implying that the large-scale circulation plays a main role in the daily variation of air pollution. Similar effects were obtained for the traffic-control month and the Chinese Spring festival with massive fireworks burning. Basing on the large-scale reanalysis variables and assuming the same emission level as that in the model training period, the downscaled winter PM2.5 has a significant decreasing trend during 1979-2017.

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“…Khodayar and Helgert (2021) additionally investigated the response of the western Mediterranean HP to extreme SM conditions showing that changes in the initial scenarios impact the mean, but also the extremes of precipitation. Regional projections of precipitation under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario have shown to be considerably modified when SM is used as predictor (Hertig et al, 2018). Therefore, a better knowledge and representation of soil conditions and evolution have to be considered for HP understanding and modelling.…”

Section: Land Conditions and Feedback To The Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Overview towards improved understanding of the mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in the Western Mediterranean: lessons learned from HyMeX

Khodayar¹,

Davolio²,

Girolamo³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean (WMed). Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences on infrastructure and personal losses. Despite this being a well-known issue, widely investigated in the past, still open questions remain. Particularly, the understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modelling representation of the events must be improved. One of the major goals of the Hydrological cYcle in the Mediterranean eXperiment (HyMeX; 2010–2020) has been to advance knowledge on this topic. In this article we present an overview of the most recent lessons learned from HyMeX towards improved understanding of the mechanisms leading to HP in the WMed. The unique network of instruments deployed, the use of finer model resolutions and of coupled models, provided an unprecedented opportunity to validate numerical model simulations, to develop improved parameterizations, designing high-resolution ensemble modelling approaches and sophisticated assimilation techniques across scales. All in all, HyMeX and particularly the science team heavy precipitation favoured the evidencing of theoretical results, the enrichment of our knowledge on the genesis and evolution of convection in a complex topography environment, and the improvement of precipitation forecasts. Illustratively, the intervention of cyclones and warm conveyor belts in the occurrence of heavy precipitation has been pointed out, the crucial role of the spatio-temporal distribution of the atmospheric water vapor for the understanding and accurate forecast of the timing and location of deep convection has been evidenced, as well as the complex interaction among processes across scales. The importance of soil and ocean conditions and the interactions among systems were highlighted and such systems were specifically developed in the framework of HyMeX to improve the realism of weather forecasts. Furthermore, the benefits of cross-disciplinary efforts within HyMeX have been a key asset in bringing a step forward our knowledge about heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

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The impact of soil moisture on precipitation downscaling in the Euro-Mediterranean area

Cited by 6 publications

References 42 publications

Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Downscaling Winter Daily PM2.5 Concentrations From Large-Scale Meteorological Dataset -a Case Study for a City in North China

Overview towards improved understanding of the mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in the Western Mediterranean: lessons learned from HyMeX

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