The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change

Carvalho, Anabela; Flannigan, Mike D.; Logan, K. A.; Gowman, Lynn M.; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Borrego, Carlos

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9667-2

Cited by 100 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This 3.7 times increase is translated into shorter fire rotation periods which is in agreement with the results obtained in other approaches carried out in the Iberian Peninsula. In Portugal, Carvalho et al (2010) reported even greater values than the ones used in this work with an increment of 478% (> 5.7 times the current level) for the SRES A2 scenario. A simulation analysis performed in three areas of NE Spain show that currently fuel-humidity limited regions could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 times increase of annual burned area while the impact is predicted to be less pronounced in drier areas (Loepfe et al, 2012).…”

Section: Fire Regime Estimates and Forest Changescontrasting

confidence: 50%

“…The fire regime represents a particular combination of fire 2 ranean basin (Moriondo et al, 2006;Lung et al, 2013) while several studies concerning the Iberian Peninsula, point to an increment in fire risk under future climate scenarios (e.g. Moreno, 2005;Carvalho et al, 2010, Vázquez et al, 2012. This possible increase in fire activity could have important effects on forest landscapes (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

et al. 2015

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Aim of study: Fire regimes are frequently dynamic and change as a function of the interactions between the three main fire drivers: fuels, ignitions and climatic conditions. We characterized the recent period and performed estimates for the future fire regime.Area of study: We have considered five pine and another four woodland types by means of the analyses of 100 reference areas in peninsular Spain.Material and Methods: The estimates of the expected alterations in fire frequency and the fire rotation period were based on models previously developed for the climatic scenarios SRES A2 and B2.Main results: The results point to the large variability in fire frequency and rotation periods between the woodland types as defined, and also among the reference areas delimited for each of them. Fire frequencies will increase for all woodland types while very relevant shortenings of the fire rotation periods are expected. For the 32 yr period analysed, rotation periods longer than 500 yr were obtained in 54% of the reference areas while this percentage would decrease to 31% in the B2 and to 29% in the A2 climatic scenario. In the most affected woodland type, P. pinaster, from a median rotation period of 83 yr it would decrease to 26 yr in the B2 and to 20 yr in the A2 climatic scenario.Research highlights: We conclude that the predicted increases in fire activity will have adverse effects on some of the main Spanish woodland types due to the expected future disruptions in the fire regime.

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Section: Fire Regime Estimates and Forest Changescontrasting

confidence: 50%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

et al. 2015

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“…Nitschke & Innes 2008) or to use RCM with higher spatial resolution (e.g. Pereira et al 2002, Durão & Corte-Real 2006, Carvalho et al 2010. Alternatively, each model performance can be evaluated and, for instance, the inter-comparison of the model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios points out that the MIROC models have a small decrease (~10%) in spring precipitation and a rise of 4°C in mean spring temperature during the 2070−2099 period, in Southern Europe and Northern Africa.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Carvalho et al (2010) investigated the impact of future climate change on fire activity in 12 districts across Portugal using historical relationships and simulations of the High Resolution Hamburg Model (HIRHAM). They have estimated an increase of 280% in the number of fires and of 480% in burnt area for all 12 districts in the case of a 2× CO 2 scenario.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…over North America (Wotton et al 2003, Gillett et al 2004, Westerling et al 2006, Flannigan et al 2009b, Australia (Lynch et al 2007), boreal forests of North America and Eurasia (Flannigan et al 2005, Wotton et al 2010, and Mediterranean Europe (Pereira et al 2002, Pausas 2004, Carvalho et al 2010). In the above-mentioned studies, climate data are used either directly or indirectly by means of fire weather or drought indices and, in general, GCM scenarios are used to project wildfire risk in future climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of regional climate change on rural fires in Portugal

Pereira¹,

Calado²,

DaCamara³

et al. 2013

Clim. Res.

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Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

et al. 2013

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[1] In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model. Citation: Migliavacca, M., et al. (2013), Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe,

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The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change

Cited by 100 publications

References 43 publications

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

Effects of regional climate change on rural fires in Portugal

Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

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