The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volume of Fuel Supplies to EU Countries

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly a destructive factor, strongly affecting the economic fields. From the perspective of the countries affected by the pandemic, almost all sectors of the economy saw declines in economic indicators. First, the lockdown and its social consequences contributed to this. The increasing time perspective since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic implies increasingly more studies analyzing its impact on various economic spheres. The aim of the research is to determine the difference in the level of fuel supplies between a pandemic situation and a situation where a pandemic would not occur. We assumed that the pandemic is a determinant of the decline in fuel supplies. The subjects of the analysis were the following fuels: kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil and diesel oil, motor gasoline, and oil products. The countries of the European Union were analyzed. Monthly data from 2015–2021 provided by Eurostat were used for the analyses. The forecasts for 2020–2021 were determined using the exponential smoothing method. The assumption was shown to be accurate in the case of kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil, and diesel oil. In this case, there was a clear drop in the level of supplies. The analysis of forecasts shows that if it were not for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the years 2020–2021, in accordance with the forecasts obtained, approximately 31,495 thousand tons of kerosene-type jet fuel and 11,396 thousand tons of gas oil and diesel oil would have been additionally supplied to the EU countries. For oil products, supply volumes also decreased, but unlike previously mentioned fuels, supply levels had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. On the other hand, the forecast of deliveries indicates the volume of 95,683 thousand tons of oil products.

Assessing the impact of seasonality on bioenergy production from energy crops in Germany, considering just‐in‐time philosophy

“…For road transportation, we relied on the Vector21 model's output, which simulates and assesses various transport technologies within the context of light and heavy-duty vehicle fleets. 61 Due to the impact of seasonality on the consumption pattern of gasoline and kerosene, we included constraints (6) and ( 7) based on the periodic pattern in Dembińska et al 62 The authors show that gasoline and kerosene consumption in Europe reach their zenith during summer; however, this particular consumption pattern is not observed in the case of diesel fuel. This disparity is understandable considering that diesel finds application in other sectors like agriculture and heavy-duty trucks, whereas gasoline and kerosene are more correlated to leisure travel.…”

Untitled

“…Wartości te dobierane są na zasadzie minimalizacji średniokwadratowego błędu prognozy ex post, czyli minimalizacji sumy kwadratów różnic między wartościami empirycznymi a prognozowanymi na jeden okres do przodu. Realizując proces wygładzania wykładniczego, można polegać na różnych modelach, dostosowanych do rodzaju składowych przewidywanych szeregów czasowych (Billah et al, 2006;Ostertagova & Ostertag, 2012;Dembińska et al, 2022).…”

Selected Polynomial Identification Techniques to Evaluate Maritime Transport Trends Around Covid-19

“…The decrease in sea transport of liquid goods visible in the chart results from the decrease in global demand, which was recorded primarily in relation to all types of fuels, especially jet aviation fuels, due to the almost complete stoppage of air traffic. Demand for liquid petroleum gas (LPG) fell sharply and slightly less than the demand for petrol [7].…”