The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland

Curtis, John; Lynch, Muireann Á.; Zubiate, Laura

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.003

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The well established relationship between the GB power system and the NAO (see [7,9,11]) was confirmed in this study. However, this study has added to the literature by showing that although the correlation between TAER and the NAO is similar in all scenarios, the amount of wind power capacity installed on the Figure 9.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…In particular, the addition of wind power capacity impacts on power system components that are not themselves directly weather sensitive (e.g. the volume of power produced and prices received by traditional power stations; [4][5][6][7]). The focus of this paper is the impact of increasing wind power capacity on GB Total Annual Energy Requirement (TAER, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is growing evidence that weather and climate have a significant impact on power systems. At seasonal time-scales (3-monthly) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; a meteorological index measuring the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, [8]) has been shown to affect wind power generation [9][10][11][12][13], power demand [11], and even electricity prices [7] in regions of western Europe. Other modes of climate variability-such as the East Atlantic and Scandinavian pattern-have also been shown to play a contributory role [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Shaffrey

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The increasing use of intermittent renewable generation (such as wind) is increasing the exposure of national power systems to meteorological variability. This study identifies how the integration of wind power in one particular country (Great Britain, GB) is affecting the overall sensitivity of the power system to weather using three key metrics: total annual energy requirement, peak residual load (from sources other than wind) and wind power curtailment.The present-day level of wind power capacity (approximately 15 GW) is shown to have already changed the power system's overall sensitivity to weather in terms of the total annual energy requirement, from a temperature-to a wind-dominated regime (which occurred with 6GW of installed wind power capacity). Peak residual load from sources other than wind also shows a similar shift. The associated changes in the synoptic-and large-scale meteorological drivers associated with each metric are identified and discussed. In a period where power systems are changing rapidly, it is therefore argued that past experience of the weather impacts on the GB power system may not be a good guide for the impact on the present or near-future power system.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Shaffrey

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The occurrence of specific atmospheric conditions can lead to fluctuations in the wind power production and electricity demand over Europe (Brayshaw et al ., 2011; van der Wiel et al ., 2019) that can have financial consequences for this sector (Curtis et al ., 2016). This connection has recently raised the interest of wind energy users in the atmospheric patterns and their frequency of occurrence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wind energy users need to properly characterize the climate variability in a wide range of timescales (short‐term, subseasonal, seasonal and decadal) because this variability can affect the balance between wind energy production and demand (Brayshaw et al ., 2011; Thornton et al ., 2017; Staffell and Pfenninger, 2018). The strong association between atmospheric circulation and wind power production suggests that the most recurrent large‐scale atmospheric circulation structures can be used as a tool to understand the fluctuations of the wind energy generation (Curtis et al ., 2016; Zubiate et al ., 2017; Walz et al ., 2018). The occurrence of identifiable atmospheric patterns can be used to understand anomalies of the wind energy resources in the past months (forensic analyses) but also to make simplified estimations of the seasonal evolution of the atmospheric variability that could be useful to anticipate revenues and potential cash‐flow problems, plan maintenance operations or anticipate supply–demand balance risks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector

Torralba

González-Reviriego

Cortesi

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Atmospheric circulation patterns that prevail for several consecutive days over a specific region can have consequences for the wind energy sector as they may lead to a reduction of the wind power generation, impacting market prices or repayments of investments. The main goal of this study is to develop a user-oriented classification of atmospheric circulation patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region that helps to mitigate the impact of the atmospheric variability on the wind industry at seasonal timescales. Particularly, the seasonal forecasts of these frequencies of occurrence can be also beneficial to reduce the risk of the climate variability in wind energy activities. K-means clustering has been applied on the sea level pressure from the ERA5 reanalysis to produce a classification with three, four, five and six clusters per season. The spatial similarity between the different ERA5 classifications has revealed that four clusters are a good option for all the seasons except for summer when the atmospheric circulation can be described with only three clusters. However, the use of these classifications to reconstruct wind speed and temperature, key climate variables for the wind energy sector, has shown that four clusters per season are a good choice. The skill of five seasonal forecast systems in simulating the year-to-year variations in the frequency of occurrence of the atmospheric patterns is more dependent on the inherent skill of the sea level pressure than on the number of clusters employed. This result suggests that more work is needed to improve the performance of the seasonal forecast systems in the Euro-Atlantic domain to extract skilful forecast information from the circulation classification. Finally, this analysis illustrates that from a user perspective it is essential to consider the application when selecting a classification and to take into account different forecast systems.

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Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system

Lücke,

Dent,

Hegerl

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

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Britain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias‐corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature‐related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather‐related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present‐day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short‐lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions.

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The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland

Cited by 11 publications

References 62 publications

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector

Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system

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