Background: Individuals with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are at risk of tumor recurrence after surgical resection, which affects their survival. The aim of the present study was to establish a model for predicting tumor progression in patients with HCC. Methods: To develop and validate the efficacy of a novel prognostic model, a retrospective cohort with HCC (n = 1005) at Beijing Ditan Hospital was enrolled from January 2008 and June 2017. Furthermore, a prospective cohort (n = 77) was recruited to validate the association between thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels and tumor progression in patients with HCC. Results: The model used in predicting the progression of HCC included four variables (namely, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC] stage, presence of portal vein tumor thrombus, alpha-fetoprotein level, and TSH level). The AUROC of the 1-year progressionfree survival (PFS) model was 0.755 and 0.753 in the deriving cohort and validation cohort, respectively, and these values were significantly higher than those of the Child-Pugh score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), tumor-lymph node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, Okuda classification, and CLIP score. A simple assessment using a nomogram showed the 1-year PFS rate of patients with HCC. In the prospective cohort, the KM curve showed that the high TSH level group had a shorter PFS than the low TSH level (p = 0.001). Conclusion: The prognostic model of HCC progression was superior to other well-known classical tumor scoring systems. A high TSH level was correlated to poor outcome, particularly those with advanced HCC.