The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Machado, Beatriz Marcondes; Antunes, Liliana; Caetano, Constantino; Pereira, João F.; Nunes, Baltazar; Patrício, Paula; Morgado, Maria Luísa

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022043

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…These results are in agreement with other Portuguese modelling studies [12] , [36] and international studies [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] which also present epidemic spread in the presence of vaccination. Consequently the Portuguese government decided to vaccinate those between 5 to 11 years old (during late December 2021), which according to our results would further reduce disease transmission and could even control disease spread in the worst hypothetical scenario considered (

and no NPIs) if vaccine effectiveness is high (

).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal

Caetano

Morgado

Patrício

et al. 2022

Vaccine

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and no NPIs) if vaccine effectiveness is high (

).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal

Caetano

Morgado

Patrício

et al. 2022

Vaccine

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“…1). 14,15,18 For every stage, the variables that were studied and considered representative of the clinical workload of oral healthcare were: total number of appointments (first and follow-up) performed in all areas and specialties; referrals from primary healthcare; missed appointments; number of surgeries performed in the operating room (OR); number of biopsies; and patients admitted through the ER.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID-19 Impact on Oral Healthcare Demand and Performance: The Experience of a Clinical and Academic Centre in Portugal (EU)

Mendes-Abreu

Cabo²,

Borges³

et al. 2022

Acta Med Port

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Introduction: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has reshaped the global landscape as we know it and had a tremendous effect on healthcare systems around the world. However, its impact on oral healthcare is still to be fully assessed. The aim of this study was to understand if and how COVID-19 affected the demand and performance of oral healthcare, taking the Clinical and Academic Centre of Coimbra as an example, more specifically, the Department of Stomatology of the Coimbra Hospital and University Centre and the Dentistry Department of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Coimbra.Material and Methods: An observational study was designed for collecting the data of a series of key oral healthcare indicators: number of appointments; referrals from primary healthcare; missed appointments; number of surgeries performed in the operating room; number of biopsies; number of patients admitted through the emergency department and epidemiologic parameters over two 18-month periods between September 2018 and August 2021: pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter divided in four stages. A statistical analysis which included descriptive and inferential procedures was then performed, with an established significance level of 5% and the application of parametric tests, t-Student test for a sample and for independent samples and One-Way ANOVA for the variance analysis.Results: There was a general decline in all indicators comparing the pre-COVID-19 with the COVID-19 period, with a reduction of 50.61% in the number of appointments, 44.06% in referrals, 24.41% in surgeries, 26.30% in biopsies and 32.33% in patients seen in the Emergency Room. The number of missed appointments also increased by 181.82%. All variations revealed statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). The individual COVID-19 stage analysis, when compared with the pre-COVID-19 reference, and variance analysis of these different stages also showed statistically significant differences (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001), except for the number of biopsies during the third and fourth stages.Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had a considerable impact on oral healthcare demand and performance. However, results also show a remarkable adjustment and improvement in the provided care, with a positive evolution throughout the COVID-19 period.

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“…Some of the concepts presented in the following are classical concepts in the infectious disease modelling literature. Variants of the SIR model were considered by one of the authors in [24] and, for the COVID-19 epidemic context, in [25,26]. In the following, we will focus on the main differences between previous models and the one we study in this work.…”

Section: The Si(rd) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Section 4.5, we will consider the use of some secondary parameters to overcome this issue. 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 3, 6, 3, 8, 10, 10, 17, 16,24,19,21,20,27,22,37,20,29,16,34,35,29,26,35,34,31,32,32,30,28,30,27,21,27,23,35,34,26,23,25,20,25,16,18,16,20,20,11,15,16,9,12,9,9,19,12,9,6,13,15,…”

Section: Data and Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Multi-Compartment SI(RD) Model with Regime Switching: An Application to COVID-19 Pandemic

et al. 2021

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We study—with existence and unicity results—a variant of the SIR model for an infectious disease incorporating both the possibility of a death outcome—in a short period of time—and a regime switch that can account for the mitigation measures used to control the spreading of the infections, such as a total lockdown. This model is parametrised by three parameters: the basic reproduction number, the mortality rate of the infected, and the duration of the disease. We discuss a particular example of application to Portuguese COVID-19 data in two short periods just after the start of the epidemic in 4 March 2020, with the first two cases dated that day. We propose a simple and effective method for the estimation of the main parameters of the disease, namely, the basic reproduction number and the mortality rate of the infected. We correct these estimated values to take into account the asymptomatic non-diagnosed members of the population. We compare the outcome of the model in the cases of the existence, or not, of a regime switch, and under three different scenarios, with a remarkable agreement between model and data deaths in the case of our basis scenario. In a final short remark, we deal with the existence of symmetries for the proposed model.

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The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Cited by 20 publications

References 18 publications

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal

The COVID-19 Impact on Oral Healthcare Demand and Performance: The Experience of a Clinical and Academic Centre in Portugal (EU)

The Multi-Compartment SI(RD) Model with Regime Switching: An Application to COVID-19 Pandemic

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