The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird

Abstract

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.

Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

“…Our study indicated that increasing the carrying capacity (K) in Przewalski's gazelle can slow down the trend of population decline (Appendix D). As suggested by both observed and predicted effects of climate change on biodiversity (Hu et al, 2010a;Root et al, 2003), species' responses to a changing environment may be influenced by changes in suitable habitat, population processes, and interactions between different species as well as between demographic and landscape dynamics (Keith et al, 2008;. As the climate of the Qinghai lake region is becoming warmer and drier (Ma and Jiang, 2006), the effects of climate change on Przewalski's gazelle would increase with the time horizon as determined by measuring the shift in availability of suitable habitat (Hu and Jiang, 2011).…”

Detecting the potential sympatric range and niche divergence between Asian endemic ungulates of Procapra

“…We also quantify the environmental niche differentiation between gazelles across the whole geographic range in Procapra. The results in this study will help with regional or national conservation and management plans (e.g., Hu et al 2010a;Hu and Jiang 2010) and incite further research of niche evolution for Procapra.…”

“…The use of species distribution models (SDMs) combined with geographic information systems has led to a renaissance in addressing questions related to ecology, biogeography, evolutionary process, and species conservation (Guisan and Thuiller 2005;Hu et al 2010a;Lawler et al 2009;Peterson et al 1999;Warren et al 2008). SDMs are typically used for addressing ecological niche requirements of species and identifying potential areas with a high probability of presence for the focal species based on the environment attributes (Guisan and Thuiller 2005).…”

The paradox of spoonbill migration: most birds travel to where survival rates are lowest

“…An increasing proportion of spoonbills have started wintering in Europe over the last few decades (unpublished data). Moreover, climate change has been predicted to cause a northward shift of the wintering distribution of the black-faced spoonbill, Platalea minor (Hu et al 2010). This suggests that wintering sites in the northern part of the wintering range may have become more suitable over time.…”