The impacts of meeting a tight CO2 performance standard on the electric power sector

Abstract

This paper presents innovative modeling of complex interactions among gas-fired generators, coal-fired power plants, and renewables (wind and solar) when pushed hard to reduce CO 2 emissions. A hypothetical CO 2 technology performance standard, giving rise to a shadow price on CO 2 emissions, was specified as part of the study design. In this work we see gas generation rapidly replacing coal generation. To understand the fate of coal-based generation, it is important to examine trends at a granular level. An important feature of our model, the Electricity Supply and Investment Model (ESIM) is that it contains a unit inventory with unit characteristics and a memory of how each unit is operated over time. Cycling damages that individual coal units incur are a function of cumulative wear and tear over time. The expected remaining life of a cycled coal unit will depend on the severity of the cycling and for how many years. Deteriorating

Natural gas: A transition fuel for sustainable energy system transformation?

“…The first evaluates the viability of natural gas to replace coal and/or oil, and to achieve a smooth transition toward a zero or negative‐carbon future and its overall impact on GHGs emission . The second has questioned the potential delay in achieving a zero‐carbon future with the increasing use of natural gas as a transition fuel . Another concern with the growing use of natural gas is its fugitive methane emission …”

“…[19][20][21] The second has questioned the potential delay in achieving a zero-carbon future with the increasing use of natural gas as a transition fuel. 22,23 Another concern with the growing use of natural gas is its fugitive methane emission. [24][25][26] Many view natural gas as a transitional fuel in the medium term.…”

“…33 Some studies have expressed concern that the use of natural gas as a transition fuel might delay the attainment of a zero-or negative-carbon future. 22,23 It has been argued that a renewable energy system for a zero-carbon future depends on the length of the transitional phase of natural gas. Leapfrogging to a renewable energy future using more innovation would be more viable than using natural gas as a transitional fuel.…”

CO2 Price Volatility Effects on Optimal Power System Portfolios

“…Such an environmental variable, turned economic through carbon taxes or CO 2 market prices, can have in fact a significant impact on the cost of generating electricity and on the CO 2 emission reduction process in the power sector [2].…”

“…These market mechanisms generate volatility in CO 2 prices [3,4], thus introducing a new source of uncertainty, which must be taken into account for power system planning purposes [2,5].…”