This paper presents innovative modeling of complex interactions among gas-fired generators, coal-fired power plants, and renewables (wind and solar) when pushed hard to reduce CO 2 emissions. A hypothetical CO 2 technology performance standard, giving rise to a shadow price on CO 2 emissions, was specified as part of the study design. In this work we see gas generation rapidly replacing coal generation. To understand the fate of coal-based generation, it is important to examine trends at a granular level. An important feature of our model, the Electricity Supply and Investment Model (ESIM) is that it contains a unit inventory with unit characteristics and a memory of how each unit is operated over time. Cycling damages that individual coal units incur are a function of cumulative wear and tear over time. The expected remaining life of a cycled coal unit will depend on the severity of the cycling and for how many years. Deteriorating

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In this paper we use the Electricity Supply and Investment Model (ESIM) power system model to examine the energy market effects of incentivized adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS), with a primary focus on retrofi tting existing pulverized coal plants. In the presence of a 'medium' carbon charge and least-cost dispatch, units with CCS are operated with higher utilization rates than fossil energy plants without carbon capture, hence lowering CO 2 emissions. This path helps to lower the capital outlays that will be necessary to make a transition to a full portfolio of advanced low-carbon technologies. Required research, development and demonstration can be fi nanced by a portion of the carbon charge revenue.

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