The Indus Basin of Pakistan

Yu, Winston; Yang, Yichen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James L.; Debowicz, Darío; Robinson, Sherman

doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9874-6

Cited by 90 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…To systematically analyze the impacts of climate change on food security, it is important to integrate all four components of food security (i.e., food availability, access, utilization and stability). Several studies explain that increased incidences of erratic precipitation, landslides, floods and droughts have decreased agricultural production and deteriorated food security [2,20,21]. Therefore, this study explores whether these scientific findings are reflected in local people's perceptions of climate change and household food security.…”

Section: Climate Change and Food Crisis In Nepalmentioning

confidence: 95%

Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

2017

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Abstract:This study tried to understand the mountainous households' perception of climate change and its impacts on food security in the Lamjung district of Nepal. The study attempted to find out changes in households food security and daily activities in the face of climate change for the last twenty years. The study started with the 150 household surveys along with participatory rural appraisal to understand the climate change perception of local people and its impact on dimensions of food security. Households expressed different levels of perception in terms of climate change on food security. The result shows that most of the mountainous households experienced increased temperature, less rainfall in winter, an increasing number of natural disasters and the emergence of insects for the last twenty years. They perceived the role of climate change in decreased crop production, decreased dairy products and increased household work. The situation of food security is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change in the future. It was also observed that households have been using different autonomous adaptation measures, such as high yielding crop varieties, enhanced irrigation systems and fertilizers, to cope with the changing climate. Finally, the study recommended policy instruments to enhance food security in the mountainous region amidst changing climate.

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Section: Climate Change and Food Crisis In Nepalmentioning

confidence: 95%

Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

2017

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“…We find a total glaciated surface area of 29,413 km 2 in the Indus watershed, approximately 12% of the total upper basin area of 220,000 km 2 (Yu et al, 2013) (see Figure 1). The average elevation of the 20,279 glaciers is 5243 ± 547 m.a.s.l., with a range of mean elevation from ∼2975 to 7200 m.a.s.l.…”

Section: Glacier Areamentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Our understanding of the contributions of glacier runoff to specific watersheds, and of projections for glacier runoff in a warming climate, is critical, and especially important in the high mountains of Asia (hereafter HMA) that constitute the "Third Pole, " one of the largest glacierized areas outside the polar icecaps (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005;Bolch et al, 2012). With regional warming greater than 1 • C in the past 50 years and over three billion people supplied with water from the rivers draining these mountains, any glacier response to climate change is likely to have a significant impact in HMA (Wagnon et al, 2007;Immerzeel et al, 2010;Yu et al, 2013). However, the necessary financial, political and scientific resources have only sparsely been applied to detailed hydrologic and glaciologic assessments in HMA in order to accurately quantify the impact of climate change over this large and geopolitically sensitive region, and uncertainty remains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glacier meltwater has been found to constitute up to 80% of total annual river discharge in some basins in HMA (Cook et al, 2013;Yu et al, 2013;Lutz et al, 2014;Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014). Regional hydrologic studies suggest decreases in snow and ice extent over the coming century will be most detrimental in the Indus and Brahmaputra watersheds because of the significant role glacier runoff plays in these basins (Singh et al, 2006;Kulkarni et al, 2007;Immerzeel et al, 2010Immerzeel et al, , 2013Thayyen and Gergan, 2010;Rupper et al, 2012;Sharif et al, 2012;Khalid et al, 2013;Lutz et al, 2013Lutz et al, , 2014Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regional hydrologic studies suggest decreases in snow and ice extent over the coming century will be most detrimental in the Indus and Brahmaputra watersheds because of the significant role glacier runoff plays in these basins (Singh et al, 2006;Kulkarni et al, 2007;Immerzeel et al, 2010Immerzeel et al, , 2013Thayyen and Gergan, 2010;Rupper et al, 2012;Sharif et al, 2012;Khalid et al, 2013;Lutz et al, 2013Lutz et al, , 2014Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014). The Indus basin has one of the world's largest integrated irrigated networks, and more than 215 million people rely on it for agriculture, industrial development, and hydropower generation (Jianchu et al, 2007;Yu et al, 2013;Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014). Hence, there is widespread concern over the potential effects of climate change on the glaciers, and thereby freshwater resources, that has motivated recent glaciologic and hydrologic research across the Himalayan region, and in particular the Indus River basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of glacier runoff projections to baseline climate data in the Indus River basin

et al. 2015

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Quantifying the contribution of glacier runoff to water resources is particularly important in regions such as High Mountain Asia, where glaciers provide a large percentage of seasonal river discharge and support large populations downstream. In remote areas, direct field measurements of glacier melt rates are difficult to acquire and rarely observed, so hydro-glaciological modeling and remote sensing approaches are needed. Here we present estimates of glacier melt contribution to the Upper Indus watershed over the last 40 years using a suite of seven reanalysis climate datasets that have previously been used in hydrological models for this region, a temperature-index melt model and >29,000 km 2 of ice cover. In particular, we address the uncertainty in estimates of meltwater flux that is introduced by the baseline climate dataset chosen, by comparing the results derived from each. Mean annual glacier melt contribution varies from 8 to 169 km 3 yr −1 , or between 4 and 78% of the total annual runoff in the Indus, depending on temperature dataset applied. Under projected scenarios of an additional 2-4 • C of regional warming by 2100 AD, we find annual meltwater fluxes vary by >200% depending on the baseline climate dataset used and, importantly, span a range of positive and negative trends. Despite significant differences between climate datasets and the resulting spread in meltwater fluxes, the spatial pattern of melt is highly correlated and statistically robust across all datasets. This allows us to conclude with confidence that fewer than 10% of the >20,000 glaciers in the watershed contribute more than 80% of the total glacier runoff to the Indus. These are primarily large, low elevation glaciers in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush. Additional field observations to ground-truth modeled climate data will go far to reduce the uncertainty highlighted here and we suggest that efforts be focused on those glaciers identified to be most significant to water resources.

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The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

Brown¹,

Lund

Cai

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

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This paper presents a short history of water resources systems analysis from its beginnings in the Harvard Water Program, through its continuing evolution toward a general field of water resources systems science. Current systems analysis practice is widespread and addresses the most challenging water issues of our times, including water scarcity and drought, climate change, providing water for food and energy production, decision making amid competing objectives, and bringing economic incentives to bear on water use. The emergence of public recognition and concern for the state of water resources provides an opportune moment for the field to reorient to meet the complex, interdependent, interdisciplinary, and global nature of today's water challenges. At present, water resources systems analysis is limited by low scientific and academic visibility relative to its influence in practice and bridled by localized findings that are difficult to generalize. The evident success of water resource systems analysis in practice (which is set out in this paper) needs in future to be strengthened by substantiating the field as the science of water resources that seeks to predict the water resources variables and outcomes that are important to governments, industries, and the public the world over. Doing so promotes the scientific credibility of the field, provides understanding of the state of water resources and furnishes the basis for predicting the impacts of our water choices.

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The Indus Basin of Pakistan

Cited by 90 publications

References 12 publications

Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

Sensitivity of glacier runoff projections to baseline climate data in the Indus River basin

The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

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