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The Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) is a hydro-agro-economic optimization model for agricultural investment planning across Pakistan's Indus Basin provinces. This study describes an update and modification of the model-called IBMR-2012-that reflects the current agroeconomic conditions in Pakistan for the purpose of evaluating the impact of climate change on water allocation and food security. Results of hydro-climatic parameter sensitivity and basinwide and provincial level climate change impacts on crop productions are presented. We show that compared to Punjab, Sindh faces both significantly larger climate change impacts on agriculture and higher uncertainty regarding climate change impacts in the future.

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. -0-8213-9874-6 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9875-3 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9874-6 Cover photo: Donald Alford; Cover design: Naylor Design. ISBN (paper): 978 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataYu, Winston H. The Indus Basin of Pakistan : the impacts of climate risks on water and agriculture / Winston Yu, Yi-Chen Yang, Andre Savitsky, Donald Alford, Casey Brown, James Wescoat, Dario Debowicz, and Sherman Robinson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. 1. Climatic changes-Pakistan. 2. Crops and climate-Pakistan 3. Water resources developmentEnvironmental aspects-Pakistan. 4. Indus River Watershed-Economic conditions. 5. Indus River Watershed-Environmental conditions. I. World Bank. II. Title. QC903.2.P18Y82 2013 551.48095491-dc23 2013008111 The Indus Basin of Pakistan The authors benefited enormously from the many technical discussions with colleagues and officers of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Government of Pakistan: Irshad Ahmad, Syed Raghib Abbas Shah, Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Daniyal Hashmi, Abdul Rehman, Muhammad Siddique, Iabal Masood Siddiqui, Mushtaq Ahmad, Rao Shafiq-ur-Rehman, and Shafeeq ur Rehman. Useful guidance during the early stages of the study was provided by Shams Ul Mulk (former WAPDA Chairman), Ishfaq Ahmad (Planning Commission), Zafar Altaf (Pakistan Agricultural Research Council), and scientists from the Global Change Impact Studies Cent...

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.

Since independence, joint use of water resources in the Aral