The influence of decision heuristics and overconfidence on multiattribute choice: A process-tracing study

Abstract

In the present study it was shown that decision heuristics and confidence judgements play important roles in the building of preferences. Based on a dual-process account of thinking, the study compared people who did well versus poorly on a series of decision heuristics and overconfidence judgement tasks. The two groups were found to differ with regard to their information search behaviour in introduced multiattribute choice tasks. High performers on the judgemental tasks were less influenced in their decision processes by numerical information format (probabilities vs. frequencies) compared to low performers. They also looked at more attributes and spent more time on the multiattribute choice tasks. The results reveal that performance on decision heuristics and overconfidence tasks has a bearing both on heuristic and analytic processes in multiattribute decision making

Can intuitive and analytical decision styles explain managers' evaluation of information technology?

“…In the interview, participants were presented with a set of semi‐structured questions that are presented below: Visions regarding IT in the organization :What kind of visions do you have regarding the use of IT in your organization?How will your visions affect the processing of information in the decision making process?How sure are you that these visions are the correct ones ? Motives for IT development :What are your motives for the IT development?What can you gain from IT development in the future?How do your motives affect the processing of information in the decision making process?How sure are you that there are not any other important motives? Opportunities and obstacles to the development of IT :What are the opportunities and obstructions for effective use of IT in your organization?How do the opportunities and obstructions affect the processing of information in your decision making? Measurement of IT effects :How do you evaluate the effects of IT in your company?How sure are you that that there are not any other important effects?Following the interview, participants completed a series of tasks to measure their heuristic making style. The heuristic decision making style was assessed by decision heuristic tasks as well as confidence tasks (Selart et al , 2006; Tversky and Kahneman, 1974; Plous, 1993). The test booklet consisted of 24 questions.…”

“…Previous research has revealed that high performers' decision processes compared to low performers', are less influenced by the framing of information (Selart et al , 2006). High performers search for more information and spend more time on the process.…”

Eye movement monitoring as a process tracing methodology in decision making research.

“…Measurements of the spatial distribution of eye movements have also been used to derive measures that are analogous to those obtained from information search displays, such as the pattern of information search, variability of information search, and depth of information search (Day, Lin, Huang, & Chuang, 2009; Lohse & Johnson, 1996; Pieters & Warlop, 1999; Reisen et al, 2008; Rosen & Rosenkoetter, 1976; Russo & Dosher, 1983; Selart, Kuvaas, Boe, & Takemura, 2006). Specifically, to index the pattern of information search (developed by Payne, 1976), researchers compare the number of alternative-wise gaze transitions (i.e., moving one's gaze from one attribute to another within a single alternative) and the number of attribute-wise gaze transitions (i.e., moving one's gaze from one attribute in a decision alternative to the same attribute in another alternative).…”

Thinking as shaped by framing sensitivity

“…The present results only give an indication of a partial connection, and the scale measuring self-reported intuition has not yet been thoroughly validated. If this connection could be more fully established it would give further support for the notion that the availability heuristic (Kahneman, 2003;Selart, Kuvaas, Boe, & Takemura, 2006) plays a major part in explaining the influence of sensitivity-to-framing on analytical and intuitive decision making.…”