The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Asare, Ernest O.; Al-Mamun, Mohammad A.; Sarmin, Monira; Faruque, A. S. G.; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Pitzer, Virginia E.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.2727

Cited by 5 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The distribution of genotypes differed between countries that had implemented rotavirus vaccination and those that had not. In comparison to nations without rotavirus vaccine introduction, the occurrence of G1P [8] was lower in African and European countries that had adopted the vaccine. 9 Rotavirus infection shows a distinctive seasonal pattern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…Changing pattern of genotypic distribution of rotavirus genotypes was observed over the study period (Figure 2). In 2017, G1P [8] was the most prevalent genotype, but it gradually decreased and remained as the second most prominent genotype between 2018 and 2020. In contrast, G3P [8] was the second most prevailing genotype in 2017 but gradually became the most prominent genotype during 2018-2020.…”

Section: Distribution Of G and P Genotypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2017, G1P [8] was the most prevalent genotype, but it gradually decreased and remained as the second most prominent genotype between 2018 and 2020. In contrast, G3P [8] was the second most prevailing genotype in 2017 but gradually became the most prominent genotype during 2018-2020. In 2021, G1P [8] was slightly more prevalent than G3P [8] (40% vs. 38%, respectively).…”

Section: Distribution Of G and P Genotypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…G1P [4] G1P [6] G1P [8] G2P [4] G2P [8] G2P [6] G3P [4] G3P [6] G3P [8] G9P [4] G9P [8] F I G U R E 2 Fluctuation of major rotavirus A genotypes during 2017-2021, Dhaka, Bangladesh.…”

Section: Years Of Surveillancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In lowincome countries, rotavirus cases are observed throughout the year, but in high-income countries, the highest incidence is observed in the winter months from November to February. 8 Currently, two live, attenuated, oral rotavirus vaccines are routinely used globally: the Rotarix monovalent (RV1 or G1P [8], GlaxoSmithKline) and the RotaTeq pentavalent (RV5 or G1-G4 in combination with P [8][5], Merck). Two more vaccines have been sponsored by the government of India, the monovalent ROTAVAC (G9P [11]) and the multivalent Rotasil (G1, G2, G3, G4, G9, and P [8]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rotavirus trends and distribution of genotypes before and during COVID‐19 pandemic era: Bangladesh, 2017–2021

Haque,

Talha,

Rahman

et al. 2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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Rotavirus gastroenteritis is accountable for an estimated 128 500 deaths among children younger than 5 years worldwide, and the majority occur in low‐income countries. Although the clinical trials of rotavirus vaccines in Bangladesh revealed a significant reduction of severe rotavirus disease by around 50%, the vaccines are not yet included in the routine immunization program. The present study was designed to provide data on rotavirus diarrhea with clinical profiles and genotypes before (2017–2019) and during the COVID‐19 pandemic period (2020–2021). Fecal samples were collected from 2% of the diarrheal patients at icddr,b Dhaka hospital of all ages between January 2017 and December 2021 and were tested for VP6 rotavirus antigen using ELISA. The clinical manifestations such as fever, duration of diarrhea and hospitalization, number of stools, and dehydration and so on were collected from the surveillance database (n = 3127). Of the positive samples, 10% were randomly selected for genotyping using Sanger sequencing method. A total of 12 705 fecal samples were screened for rotavirus A antigen by enzyme immunoassay. Overall, 3369 (27%) were rotavirus antigen‐positive, of whom children <2 years had the highest prevalence (88.6%). The risk of rotavirus A infection was 4.2 times higher in winter than in summer. Overall, G3P[8] was the most prominent genotype (45.3%), followed by G1P[8] (32.1%), G9P[8] (6.8%), and G2P[4] (6.1%). The other unusual combinations, such as G1P[4], G1P[6], G2P[6], G3P[4], G3P[6], and G9P[6], were also present. Genetic analysis on Bangladeshi strains revealed that the selection pressure (dN/dS) was estimated as <1. The number of hospital visits showed a 37% drop during the COVID‐19 pandemic relative to the years before the pandemic. Conversely, there was a notable increase in the rate of rotavirus positivity during the pandemic (34%, p < 0.00) compared to the period before COVID‐19 (23%). Among the various clinical symptoms, only the occurrence of watery stool significantly increased during the pandemic. The G2P[4] strain showed a sudden rise (19%) in 2020, which then declined in 2021. In the same year, G1P[8] was more prevalent than G3P[8] (40% vs. 38%, respectively). The remaining genotypes were negligible and did not exhibit much fluctuation. This study reveals that the rotavirus burden remained high during the COVID‐19 prepandemic and pandemic in Bangladesh. Considering the lack of antigenic variations between the circulating and vaccine‐targeted strains, integrating the vaccine into the national immunization program could reduce the prevalence of the disease, the number of hospitalizations, and the severity of cases.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Distribution Of G and P Genotypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Distribution Of G and P Genotypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…G1P [4] G1P [6] G1P [8] G2P [4] G2P [8] G2P [6] G3P [4] G3P [6] G3P [8] G9P [4] G9P [8] F I G U R E 2 Fluctuation of major rotavirus A genotypes during 2017-2021, Dhaka, Bangladesh.…”

Section: Years Of Surveillancementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rotavirus trends and distribution of genotypes before and during COVID‐19 pandemic era: Bangladesh, 2017–2021

Haque,

Talha,

Rahman

et al. 2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

et al. 2022

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To quantify the potential impact of rotavirus vaccines and identify strategies to improve vaccine performance in Bangladesh, a better understanding of the drivers of pre-vaccination rotavirus patterns is required. We developed and fitted mathematical models to 23 years (1990–2012) of weekly rotavirus surveillance data from Dhaka with and without incorporating long-term and seasonal variation in the birth rate and meteorological factors. We performed external model validation using data between 2013 and 2019 from the regions of Dhaka and Matlab. The models showed good agreement with the observed age distribution of rotavirus cases and captured the observed shift in seasonal patterns of rotavirus hospitalizations from biannual to annual peaks. The declining long-term trend in the birth rate in Bangladesh was the key driver of the observed shift from biannual to annual winter rotavirus patterns. Meteorological indices were also important: a 1°C, 1% and 1 mm increase in diurnal temperature range, surface water presence and degree of wetness were associated with a 19%, 3.9% and 0.6% increase in the transmission rate, respectively. The model demonstrated reasonable predictions for both Dhaka and Matlab, and can be used to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh against changing patterns of disease incidence.

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Impact of dosing schedules on performance of rotavirus vaccines in Ghana

Asare,

Al-Mamun,

Armah

et al. 2024

Preprint

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BackgroundAvailable live-oral rotavirus vaccines are associated with low to moderate performance in low- and middle-income settings. There is limited evidence relating to how the vaccine dosing schedule might be adjusted to improve vaccine performance in these settings.MethodsWe used mathematical models fitted to rotavirus surveillance data for children <5 years of age from three different hospitals in Ghana (Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo) to project the impact of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year period (April 2012-March 2022). We quantified and compared the impact of the previous vaccination program in Ghana to the model-predicted impact for other vaccine dosing schedules across the three hospitals and the entire country, under different assumptions about vaccine protection. To project the rotavirus vaccine impact over Ghana, we sampled from the range of model parameters for Accra and Navrongo, assuming that these two settings represent the “extremes” of rotavirus epidemiology within Ghana.ResultsFor the previously implemented 6/10-week monovalent Rotarix vaccine (RV1) schedule, the model-estimated average annual incidence of moderate-to-severe rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) ranged between 1,151 and 3,002 per 100,000 people per year over the 10-year period for the three sites. Compared to no vaccination, the model-estimated median percentage reductions in RVGE ranged from 28-85% and 12-71% among children <1 year and <5 years of age respectively, with the highest and lowest percentage reductions predicted using model parameters estimated for Accra and Navrongo, respectively. The median predicted reductions in RVGE for the whole country ranged from 57-66% and 35-45% among children <1 year and <5 years of age, respectively. The 1/6/10- and 6/10/14-week schedules provided the best and comparable reductions in RVGE compared to the original 6/10-week schedule, whereas there was no improvement in impact for the 10/14-week schedule.ConclusionsWe found that administering an additional dose of RV1 might be an effective strategy to improve rotavirus vaccine impact, particularly in settings with low vaccine effectiveness. The results could be extrapolated to other countries using a 2-dose vaccine schedule with low to moderate vaccine performance.

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The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Cited by 5 publications

References 56 publications

Rotavirus trends and distribution of genotypes before and during COVID‐19 pandemic era: Bangladesh, 2017–2021

Rotavirus trends and distribution of genotypes before and during COVID‐19 pandemic era: Bangladesh, 2017–2021

The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Impact of dosing schedules on performance of rotavirus vaccines in Ghana

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