The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge

Johnston, Ron; Cagnin, Cristiano

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.008

Cited by 10 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In the analysis of STSO [30] it was also highlighted that to be regarded as successful, government led foresight programs need to focus on a clearly identified client, there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda. Based on experience of formal evaluation of foresight programs, it was claimed that ''lack of success had very little to do with the quality of the work that has been done and much more to do with initial and subsequent political positioning''.…”

Section: Governmental Commitmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers and levers to future exploration in practice experiences in policy-making

Rijkens-Klomp

2012

Futures

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Section: Governmental Commitmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers and levers to future exploration in practice experiences in policy-making

Rijkens-Klomp

2012

Futures

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“…However, there is no clear evidence yet that this dynamic context has led to a significant increase in the use of such approaches. The contributors to this special section of Science and Public Policy believe that forward-looking approaches need further tailoring in order to suit better the needs of decision-makers and their changing environment, and that there is an urgent need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) approaches (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

Karel¹,

Harper

Johnston

2010

Sci. and Pub. Pol.

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Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16-17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, financial and economic downturns, to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decisionmaking processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world. However, there is no clear evidence yet that this dynamic context has led to a significant increase in the use of such approaches. The contributors to this special section of Science and Public Policy believe that forward-looking approaches need further tailoring in order to suit better the needs of decision-makers and their changing environment, and that there is an urgent need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) approaches (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).Therefore, the aim of this special section is to refine FTA methodologies in order to increase their impact in policy-making. With this purpose in mind, this introductory paper sets out the general framework for approaching this topic. First, it suggests a specific definition of FTA, identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making. It then formulates a set of general recommendations with the intention of improving the policy impact of FTA. Last but not least, it introduces the different contributions to this special section one by one, highlighting the way in which these different papers propose to redefine FTA in specific policy-making contexts. The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis held 16-17 October 2008 in Seville, Spain. This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges. The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decision-making and its implications. Defining FTA and its impact on policy and decision-makingFTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio Expo WTC,

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Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

Chen

Jiang

Wakeland

2016

Futures

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The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge

Cited by 10 publications

References 3 publications

Barriers and levers to future exploration in practice experiences in policy-making

Barriers and levers to future exploration in practice experiences in policy-making

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

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