The Influence of Using a Seismically Inferred Magma Reservoir Geometry in a Volcano Deformation Model for Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Abstract

Volcano deformation models contribute to hazard assessment by simulating magma system dynamics. Traditional magma reservoir pressure source shape assumptions often fail to replicate irregular, geophysically identified geometries. Uncertainties regarding the influence of reservoir geometry can limit the effectiveness of using deformation models to decipher unrest signals. Here, we aim to determine the feasibility of using a magma reservoir geometry directly derived from a seismic tomography survey in a volcano deformation model for Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Three‐dimensional deformation models are created to simulate displacement using a pressure source geometry constrained from a low seismic velocity anomaly, inferred to be a region of partial melt, and contrasted against a traditional ellipsoid reservoir geometry. We also test a “hybrid” model combining a seismically inferred reservoir upper geometry and ellipsoidal base. Results of each model are evaluated against ground displacement observed on Montserrat from 2010 to 2022. Our results show that different reservoir geometries change the horizontal and vertical displacement fields across the island: the ellipsoid reservoir best reproduces vertical displacement magnitude, while the hybrid reservoirs best simulate horizontal displacement vectors and the region of maximum uplift. Overall, the ellipsoid‐shaped reservoir provides our best‐fit to the observed data, but we note this result could be biased due to prior years of optimization helping constrain the ellipsoid shape, size, and location. Our results show the potential for further use of geophysically constrained reservoir geometries in deformation modeling, and our methods could be applied to other deforming volcanoes worldwide.