The Interactive Roles of Aedes aegypti Super-Production and Human Density in Dengue Transmission

Padmanabha, Harish; Durham, David P.; Correa, Fabio; Diuk‐Wasser, Maria A.; Galvani, Alison P.

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001799

Cited by 74 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…Dengue outbreaks have occurred nearly every year in Taiwan since 1987, first appearing in the southern part of Taiwan, which has a high human population density. Dengue outbreaks usually increase during rapid urbanization, and a high human population density has been associated with dengue transmission because of its potential impact on human-mosquito contact [64, 65]. Our study results revealed that the clusters of Ae.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan

Tsai

Teng

2016

BMC Infect Dis

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Background Aedes mosquitoes in Taiwan mainly comprise Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti. However, the species contributing to autochthonous dengue spread and the extent at which it occurs remain unclear. Thus, in this study, we spatially analyzed real data to determine spatial features related to local dengue incidence and mosquito density, particularly that of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti.MethodsWe used bivariate Moran’s I statistic and geographically weighted regression (GWR) spatial methods to analyze the globally spatial dependence and locally regressed relationship between (1) imported dengue incidences and Breteau indices (BIs) of Ae. albopictus, (2) imported dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (3) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (4) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (5) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (6) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (7) BI of Ae. albopictus and human population density, and (8) BI of Ae. aegypti and human population density in 348 townships in Taiwan.ResultsIn the GWR models, regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti were significant and positive in most townships in Taiwan. However, Ae. albopictus had significant but negative regression coefficients in clusters of dengue epidemics. In the global bivariate Moran’s index, spatial dependence between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti was significant and exhibited positive correlation in Taiwan (bivariate Moran’s index = 0.51). However, Ae. albopictus exhibited positively significant but low correlation (bivariate Moran’s index = 0.06). Similar results were observed in the two spatial methods between all dengue incidences and Aedes mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus).The regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between imported dengue cases and Aedes mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were significant in 348 townships in Taiwan. The results indicated that local Aedes mosquitoes do not contribute to the dengue incidence of imported cases.The density of Ae. aegypti positively correlated with the density of human population. By contrast, the density of Ae. albopictus negatively correlated with the density of human population in the areas of southern Taiwan. The results indicated that Ae. aegypti has more opportunities for human–mosquito contact in dengue endemic areas in southern Taiwan.Conclusions Ae. aegypti, but not Ae. albopictus, and human population density in southern Taiwan are closely associated with an increased risk of autochthonous dengue incidence.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan

Tsai

Teng

2016

BMC Infect Dis

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“…A. aegypti thrives in urban environments in that the mosquito breeds preferentially in the artificial containers often used in urban water collection 2. The increased density of both mosquito and human populations, as part of urban population growth, compounds this effect in terms both of vector suitability and transmission of dengue 2,75. While current research and policy interventions often treat dengue expansion as a phenomenon associated with urban human settlement, the incidence of the disease in rural areas is also on the rise.…”

Section: Dengue In the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects

Murray¹,

Quam²,

Wilder-Smith³

2013

CLEP

543

436

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Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265–420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012–2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective of this paper is to review historical and current epidemiology of dengue worldwide and, additionally, reflect on some potential reasons for expansion of dengue into the future.

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“…Adults disperse by flying typically short distances and may have difficulty navigating through urban landscapes (Harrington et al, 2005; Hemme et al, 2010; Scott et al, 2000a,b; Getis et al, 2003). Because of these features, patterns of human movement—especially in the large urban populations where dengue is prevalent—play a potentially large role in virus spread and persistence (Stoddard et al, 2009; Wen et al, 2012; Padmanabha et al, 2012; Teurlai et al, 2012; Mondini et al, 2009; Barmak et al, 2011; Vazquez-Prokopec et al, 2010). Variation in human movements patterns, however, are almost never incorporated in mathematical models of vector-borne diseases (Reiner et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal

2014

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For sexually and directly transmitted infectious diseases, social connections influence transmission because they determine contact between individuals. For pathogens that are indirectly transmitted by arthropod vectors, the movement of the vectors is thought to diminish any potential role of social connections. Results from a recent study of mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV), however, indicate that human movement alone can explain significant spatial variation in urban transmission rates. Because movement patterns are structured by social ties, this result suggests that social proximity may be a good predictor of infection risk for DENV and other pathogens transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Here we investigated the effect of socially structured movement on DENV transmission using a spatially explicit, agent-based transmission model. When individual movements overlap to a high degree within social groups we were able to recreate infection patterns similar to those detected in dengue-endemic, northeastern Peru. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that social proximity drives fine-scale heterogeneity in DENV transmission rates, a result that was robust to the influence of mosquito dispersal. This heterogeneity in transmission caused by socially structured movements appeared to be hidden by the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal in aggregated infection dynamics, which implies heterogeneity could be present and active in real dengue systems without being easily noticed. Accounting for socially determined, overlapping human movements could substantially improve the efficiency and efficacy of dengue surveillance and disease prevention programs as well as result in more accurate estimates of important epidemiological quantities, such as R0.

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The Interactive Roles of Aedes aegypti Super-Production and Human Density in Dengue Transmission

Cited by 74 publications

References 39 publications

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan

Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects

Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal

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