Background A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling.Methodology/Principal FindingsUsing data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R0) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R0, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities.Significance/ConclusionsThese results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person's home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.

Understanding linkages between household behavior and Aedes aegypti (L.) larval ecology is essential for community-based dengue mitigation. Here we associate water storage behaviors with the rate of A. aegypti pupal production in three dengue-endemic Colombian cities with different mean temperatures. Qualitative, semi-structured interviews and pupal counts were conducted over a 7-15-day period in 235 households containing a water storage vessel infested with larvae. Emptying vessels more often than every 7 days strongly reduced pupal production in all three cities. Emptying every 7-15 days reduced production by a similar magnitude as emptying <7 days in Armenia (21.9 degrees C), has a threefold smaller reduction as compared to <7 days in Bucaramanga (23.9 degrees C), and did not reduce production in Barranquilla (29.0 degrees C). Lidding vessels reduced mosquito production and was most feasible in Barranquilla because of container structure. Vessel emptying strongly correlated with usage in Barranquilla, where many households stored water in case of interruptions in piped service rather than for regular use. In the cooler cities, >90% of households regularly used stored water for washing clothes, generating a weaker correlation between emptying and usage. Emptying was less frequent in the households surveyed in the dry season in all three cities. These results show that A. aegypti production and human behaviors are coupled in a temperature-dependent manner. In addition to biological effects on aquatic stages, climate change may impact A. aegypti production through human behavioral adaptations. Vector control programs should account for geographic variation in temperature and water usage behaviors in designing targeted interventions.

While heightened temperature increases the development rate of mosquitoes, for Aedes aegypti, larvae that commonly experience food limitation in urban habitats, temperature effects on adult production may also be influenced by changes in the capacity of larvae to survive without food. We carried out experiments at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C on the growth, maturation rate and the longevity of optimally fed larvae placed in starvation. Overall, both growth rate and starvation resistance were lower in the first three larval instars (L1-L3) as compared to L4, in which greater than 75% of growth occurred. While increased temperature reduced the duration of each instar, it had a U-shaped impact the effect of initial growth on starvation resistance, which increased from L1 to L2 at 20 and 30°C, remained constant at 22 and 28°C, and decreased at 24 and 26°C. Growth from L2 to L3 significantly increased starvation resistance only from 26-30°C. Increased temperature (above 22°C) consistently reduced starvation resistance in L1. In L2-L4, 2°C increments decreased starvation resistance between 20 and 24°C, but had weaker and instarspecific effects above 24°C. These data show that starvation resistance in Ae. aegypti depends on both instar and temperature, generating a tradeoff between increased development rate and reduced starvation survival of early instar larvae, particularly in the lower and middle temperatures of the dengue endemic 20-30°C range. We suggest that anabolic and catabolic processes in larvae have distinct temperature dependencies, which may ultimately cause temperature to modify density regulation of Ae. aegypti populations.