The Joint Dynamics of the U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation: Expectations and Time-Varying Uncertainty

Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Mouabbi, Sarah; Renne, Jean‐Paul

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2787225

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Indeed, there are contributions that emphasise the more 17 This is one justification for the considerable significance that is attached to inflation expectations in applied macroeconomics. The estimated trend in these expectations in the advanced economies has been downwards, as concluded by Grishchenko et al (2016). 18 UMP implies that central banks become participants on the saving side of the left-hand market for long-maturity assets.…”

Section: (I) Technology Pessimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Taylor

Tyers

2017

Economic Record

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Slack OECD economic performance and weaker macroeconomic policy support Summers's reuse of the phrase ‘secular stagnation’. Globalisation has redirected growth towards emerging economies, and anticipated rates of return on investment are impaired by perceived risk, institutionalised risk aversion, ageing and dependency, declining commitments to public investment and research and development with rising shares directed to health, retained trade distortions, industrial concentration and slower human capital accumulation, not to mention unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

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Section: (I) Technology Pessimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The estimated trend in these expectations in the advanced economies has been downwards, as concluded by Grishchenko et al . ().…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Taylor

Tyers

2017

Economic Record

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…17 This is one justification for the considerable significance that is attached to inflation expectations in applied macroeconomics. The estimated trend in these expectations in the advanced economies has been downward, as concluded by Grishchenko et al (2016). 18 The UMP implies that central banks become participants on the saving side of the left hand market for long maturity assets, while printing money to finance their trades.…”

Section: The Elemental Macroeconomicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Taylor

Tyers

2017

SSRN Journal

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Larry Summers' re-use of the phrase appears justified in the present global economic climate since many factors contribute to comparatively poor OECD economic performance and weakening macroeconomic policy instruments. Some are measurement issues and others might be seen as the downsides of globalisation, which has integrated financial markets and redirected growth from the advanced toward the emerging economies. Yet measurable rates of return on investment do appear to be impaired by rises in perceived investment risks, institutionalised risk aversion, increased ageing and dependency, declining shares of government spending in public investment and R&D with rising shares of these directed to health, the retention of trade distortions, new concentration in industrial structure and a slower rate of human capital accumulation, not to mention an unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

show abstract

The Joint Dynamics of the U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation: Expectations and Time-Varying Uncertainty

Cited by 2 publications

References 48 publications

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

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