The lock-in effect and the greening of automotive cooling systems in the European Union

Abstract

As of 2017, the sale and use of the refrigerants most commonly used in automotive cooling systems - hydrofluorocarbons - are entirely banned in all new vehicles placed on the market in the European Union. These refrigerants have been recognised as potent greenhouse gases and, therefore, direct contributors to climate change. It is within this regulation-driven market that the technologies for a sustainable solution have been developed. However, this paper argues that the market for automotive cooling systems has been 'locked-in', which means that competing technologies, operating under dynamic increasing returns, will allow for one - potentially inferior technology - to dominate the market. Whilst such a situation is not uncommon, this paper discusses the way that regulation has reinforced a patented monopoly in 'picking winners': to the advantage of a synthetic chemical, R-1234yf, as opposed to the natural solution, which is CO. By developing a generic conceptual framework of path dependence and lock-in, the presented evidence seeks to show how a snowballing effect has led to the intensification of differences in market share. We also argue that the automotive industry is potentially promoting short-term fixes, rather than long-term, sustainable and economically viable solutions.

Product Diversification in Sustainability Transition: The Forest-Based Bioeconomy in Finland

“…By increasing returns, cumulative path-dependent processes [24] reinforce that which gains success or exacerbate that which suffers loss, which can cause economic lock-in [25,26]. Recent studies in sustainability transition research have examined transition through lock-in mechanisms [27,28] and have investigated product diversification [29,30]. Lock-in mechanisms and related phenomena such as learning effects, economies of scale, and network externalities [27] can reinforce market position [29].…”

“…Recent studies in sustainability transition research have examined transition through lock-in mechanisms [27,28] and have investigated product diversification [29,30]. Lock-in mechanisms and related phenomena such as learning effects, economies of scale, and network externalities [27] can reinforce market position [29]. On the other hand, even though diversification may be required, sociotechnical lock-in that favors dominant designs can hinder the development of alternatives [30] which may be excluded merely because they do not fit the prevailing paradigm [28].…”

Market power and sustainability: a new research agenda

“…Depending on the product, this may or may not be desirable from a sustainability perspective. A lock-in may cause path dependencies, prohibiting new and potentially better technologies from being developed and marketed [89,93,94].…”

Research status and future development of thermalmanagement system for new energy vehicles underthe background of carbon neutrality

“…R1234yf 是美国杜邦公司和霍尼韦尔公司为 R134a 量身打造的替代方案 [83] ， 其热物性与 R134a 相近 [83] ，但 ODP(ozone destruction potential)=0，GWP=4 [83] ，环保性良好。虽然研 究显示 R1234yf 制冷剂与传统 R134a 或 R410A 的惯用润滑油存在一定的兼容性问题 [83] [83] 。 因此， 自 2010 年左右开始， 关于 R1234yf 热物理性质 [71][72] 或两相流动特性 [73][74] 的研究次第展开，经过一段时间的成熟后，R1234yf 向乘用车领域的推广逐渐形成规模。Zhao 等人 [75] 研究发现，同样的热负荷需求下，R1234yf 的制冷剂充注量相比 R134a 减少了 10%左右；而 Lee [76] 的研究表明，虽然充注量和压缩机…”

“…被认定为轻微可燃制冷剂 [78]- [80] ，R1234yf 溶于水可能形成三氟乙酸等 [81] ；甚至，在最新的 研究中，有学者提出 HFO 类制冷剂在大气中会分解产生 CF3CHO(三氟乙醛)，最终分解 产生 CHF3(HFC-23)，HFC-23 是一种强温室效应气体，可能最终导致 HFO 类制冷剂的 GWP 值进行重新评估 [82] 。另外，受限于美国公司的专利保护，R1234yf 高昂的价格 [83] 也是 目前限制其在国内广泛普及的主要问题。 [86] 。在此背景下，虽然很多学者研究并优化了 R290 在车辆制冷系 统内的泄露情况 [87] ，或主张采用多元混合物制冷剂的方式降低 R290 的当量充注量 [88] ，但可 燃性一直是 R290 制冷剂最大的安全隐患。 Since the signing and implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, reducing equivalent carbon emissions and effectively slowing down global warming has become the most appealing topic in various industries worldwide. The total carbon emissions of the transportation industry, which is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, account for approximately 30% of the total value of the economy and society.…”