The long and narrow path for novel cell‐based seafood to reduce fishing pressure for marine ecosystem recovery

Abstract

Cell-based seafood is an emerging novel food, with many start-up companies aspiring for ocean conservation benefits through expanded market share that displaces wild-caught seafood. However, the ability for cell-based seafood to achieve this conservation outcome is often oversimplified and will rely on an extensive, and we find somewhat tenuous, chain of events. Here, we outline the technological, behavioural, market and ecological changes that must occur along this pathway, and conclude that fisheries recoveries and collateral ocean benefits are unlikely to result from cell-based seafood technology. In particular, we detail nine necessary steps and argue that failure at any one step could hinder or even eliminate cell-based seafood's conservation effects. We additionally draw comparisons to aquaculture and share broader lessons for other demand-driven product interventions.

The search for blue transitions in aquaculture‐dominant countries

“…Even if consumers substitute existing foods for sustainable alternatives, the substitution ratio is unlikely to be 1:1 due to the web of rational and irrational factors that influence consumer decisions (Byerly et al., 2018; Rose, 2018). With numerous sequential conditions in supply chains necessary for such demand shifts to translate to meaningful production changes (Halpern et al., 2021), we suggest that if new foods do provide conservation benefits, it is likely these benefits will be small and may not counterbalance the impacts of their own production. The rise of aquaculture provides a clear example of how growth in new products tends to cater more for market expansion than effective substitution.…”

“…Numerous products have been developed in recent years as sustainable alternatives to existing foods, predominantly animal source foods that tend to be of most environmental concern. Plant‐based milks and meats, fungus‐derived mycoproteins and more recently cell‐based meat and fish are a few examples that have been, or are being, developed with the aim of displacing mainstream forms of animal protein (Halpern et al., 2021; McClements, 2020; Parodi et al., 2018). While none of these products are currently produced at anywhere near the scale of existing alternatives, the examples we, and others, highlight from aquaculture present a cautionary tale of the risks from consumer substitution‐driven interventions.…”

“…There is very little empirical information on the displacement effects of plant‐based “meats” on existing alternatives in consumer diets for example, and before any changes in consumption lead to production shifts, a number of sequential conditions along supply chains (e.g. the fidelity of price transmission, cessation of economic subsidies) must be met (Halpern et al., 2021). In the absence of coordinated policy and management actions, as is the case for aquaculture and fisheries, if new foods provide limited production displacement, and only do so at a considerable production scale, then any benefits are likely to be small and only realized at timescales inconsistent with the urgency of action required on sustainable consumption.…”

Historical food consumption declines and the role of alternative foods

“…Positive dietary changes towards more sustainable consumption do not necessarily result in environmental benefits as the complex relationships among factors such as product substitutability, market dynamics, trade relationships, and the relative environmental impacts of all foods in the dietary profile may diminish or completely prevent the intended environmental outcome [34][35][36]. Yet, the prominence of a country's domestic production as the dominant driver of the same country's food supply declines suggests local dietary shifts through policy and consumer behavior may be able to reduce impacts of food production domestically for many food items.…”

“…greenhouse gas emissions, land-use) than the majority of animal source foods [27,33]. Yet, shifts to lower-impact alternative foods can drive sustainable consumption only if the higher-impact foods they are intended to substitute for are effectively replaced in peoples' diets [34][35][36]. Indeed, without sufficient substitution of existing products, alternative foodsincluding those with potentially lower environmental burdens-have the potential to have negative or unintended environmental outcomes.…”