The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Turner, Monica G.; Braziunas, Kristin H.; Hansen, Winslow D.; Hoecker, Tyler J.; Rammer, Werner; Ratajczak, Zak; Westerling, A. L.; Seidl, Rupert

doi:10.1002/ecm.1485

Cited by 37 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 185 publications

(298 reference statements)

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“…Fire activity did not increase under warm or hot future temperatures in the wet scenarios (CanESM-2), and forest extent, composition and structure remained similar to historical conditions (Turner et al, 2021). However, in the dry scenarios (HadGEM2-ES), fire activity increased substantially, with greater increases in annual area burned in the hot vs. warm scenario.…”

Section: St-century Climate Fire and Forest Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…For each climate scenario and landscape, 20 simulations were generated in which annual burned area (and thus vegetation responses) varied stochastically. The present analysis is a companion to Turner et al (2021), where the magnitude, direction and timing of climate‐ and fire‐driven changes in forest ecosystems of the GYE are assessed using the same forest simulations. We briefly summarize those findings here but refer readers to Turner et al (2021) for a detailed treatment.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The present analysis is a companion to Turner et al (2021), where the magnitude, direction and timing of climate-and fire-driven changes in forest ecosystems of the GYE are assessed using the same forest simulations. We briefly summarize those findings here but refer readers to Turner et al (2021) for a detailed treatment.…”

Section: Species Distribution Models Based On Forest Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The extent of forest cover (stands with >50 trees ha −1 ) was reduced in both dry scenarios, and the remaining forests were sparser, younger and smaller (Figure S1). Forest composition also shifted, with increased coverage of Douglas-fir and aspen and decreased coverage of Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir and lodgepole pine (Turner et al, 2021).…”

Section: St-century Climate Fire and Forest Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If projected changes in fire activity are realized, the distributions of species adapted to forest ecosystems of the past are likely to shift in the coming decades. Although studies are increasingly aimed at projecting future forest conditions (Buotte et al, 2019; Turner et al, 2021), anticipating the consequences of fire‐driven forest change for wildlife has received less attention (Kelly et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century

Hoecker

Turner

2022

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Biodiversity conservation relies in part on enduring habitat in protected areas. In fire‐prone ecosystems, shifts in species’ ranges will result both from changes in climate and fire‐catalysed vegetation change, which could lead to niche contraction and undermine protected‐area efficacy. We explored these dynamics for three forest species with varied niches representative of other taxa and different hypothesized responses to fire‐regime change (black‐backed woodpecker, Picoides arcticus; North American marten, Martes spp.; and red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). We asked: How do the extent and spatial pattern of these species’ distributions change during the 21st century based on the independent and joint effects of climate and vegetation? Location Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming, USA). Methods For each species, we developed separate distribution models based on climate and forest attributes, projected under four climate‐fire scenarios (a 2 × 2 design with moderate and high temperature and precipitation change). A spatially explicit forest landscape model calibrated for Greater Yellowstone was used to project fire and forest dynamics through 2100, and climate suitability was estimated with MaxEnt. Results Suitable habitat for all three species based on climate or vegetation alone frequently did not overlap on the landscape, and habitat patches became simpler in shape and farther apart. Climatically suitable habitat for the black‐backed woodpecker increased in all scenarios, and suitable forest structure expanded by a factor of 30 in dry scenarios with more fire. Climatically suitable habitat for martens declined with warming and drying; the area of suitable vegetation fell >80% with fire‐driven losses of mature forest. Red squirrel habitat was maintained in all scenarios, but was sensitive to aridity, and patches were redistributed and compacted. Main conclusions Projections based on climate alone may misrepresent future species distributions, especially where disturbances accelerate vegetation change. Our results identify important consequences of fire‐regime change for wildlife in forests dominated by obligate‐seeder or fire‐sensitive conifers.

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Section: St-century Climate Fire and Forest Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Species Distribution Models Based On Forest Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: St-century Climate Fire and Forest Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century

Hoecker

Turner

2022

Diversity and Distributions

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Factors limiting the potential range expansion of lodgepole pine in Interior Alaska

Walker,

Hart,

Hansen

et al. 2024

Ecological Applications

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Understanding the factors influencing species range limits is increasingly crucial in anticipating migrations due to human‐caused climate change. In the boreal biome, ongoing climate change and the associated increases in the rate, size, and severity of disturbances may alter the distributions of boreal tree species. Notably, Interior Alaska lacks native pine, a biogeographical anomaly that carries implications for ecosystem structure and function. The current range of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in the adjacent Yukon Territory may expand into Interior Alaska, particularly with human assistance. Evaluating the potential for pine expansion in Alaska requires testing constraints on range limits such as dispersal limitations, environmental tolerance limits, and positive or negative biotic interactions. In this study, we used field experiments with pine seeds and transplanted seedlings, complemented by model simulations, to assess the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lodgepole pine seedling establishment and growth after fire in Interior Alaska. We found that pine could successfully recruit, survive, grow, and reproduce across our broadly distributed network of experimental sites. Our results show that both mammalian herbivory and competition from native tree species are unlikely to constrain pine growth and that environmental conditions commonly found in Interior Alaska fall well within the tolerance limits for pine. If dispersal constraints are released, lodgepole pine could have a geographically expansive range in Alaska, and once established, its growth is sufficient to support pine‐dominated stands. Given the impacts of lodgepole pine on ecosystem processes such as increases in timber production, carbon sequestration, landscape flammability, and reduced forage quality, natural or human‐assisted migration of this species is likely to substantially alter responses of Alaskan forest ecosystems to climate change.

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Forest resilience and regeneration dynamics following wildfire disturbance

Bushey,

Osmer,

Green

et al. 2023

Ecosphere

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Species that are adapted to specific disturbance regimes may be sensitive to changes such as severity, frequency, and extent of ecosystem perturbation. Along range margins, these sensitivities may be exacerbated by concurrent changes in climate resulting in loss of resilience and shifts to alternative ecosystem states. Pinus banksiana (jack pine) is a serotinous species dependent on fire disturbance to open cones, release seed, reduce understory competition, and expose mineral soil. The Altona Flat Rock in northern New York is a globally rare sandstone pine barrens, at the southern edge of jack pine's range. In the summer of 2018, a wildfire burned approximately 200 ha of the Flat Rock barrens, providing the opportunity to study post‐disturbance jack pine and understory resilience. We aimed to establish if jack pine regeneration would occur, and if so, would it be influenced by fire severity, pre‐fire stand characteristics, and competition. We predicted that higher seedling densities would be associated with higher burn severity, higher pre‐fire jack pine stand density, and lesser understory competition. We collected seedling density and understory composition data annually from 2019 to 2022 across 45 plots spanning the disturbed and adjacent undisturbed barrens. In 2021 and 2022, seedling heights were also collected. Seedling densities following the disturbance ranged from 275,385 to 390,513 ha−1; = 357,821 ha−1. Jack pine seedling density was positively associated with fire severity and moss abundance for all years. Pre‐fire stand density along with ericaceous shrub, grass, and duff abundance were also positively associated with seedling density in some years. Seedling height was positively associated with fire severity along with grass and blueberry abundance. These factors, for both establishment/survival and growth, point to the importance of seed supply, microsite conditions, and facilitation in jack pine regeneration success. At this point, it does not appear that the interaction of disturbance with changing climate has shifted enough to prevent the recovery of this ecosystem to its pre‐disturbance jack pine‐dominated state. However, ongoing climate change may still have an impact on seedlings/saplings as this forest continues to mature.

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The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Cited by 37 publications

References 185 publications

Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century

Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century

Factors limiting the potential range expansion of lodgepole pine in Interior Alaska

Forest resilience and regeneration dynamics following wildfire disturbance

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