The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Antarctica

Lüning, Sebastian; Gałka, Mariusz; Vahrenholt, Fritz

doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2019.109251

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 193 publications

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“…Some centennial‐scale climate episodes in the past 2000 years, for example, Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age (LIA), have been widely reported. Medieval Warm Period, also known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), is commonly used to indicate the warm climate or climate perturbation during 800–1300 CE (Lamb, 1965; Lüning et al., 2019; Mann et al., 2009). LIA usually refers to the cold climate that occurred between 1300 CE and 1850 CE (Bertler et al., 2011; Grove, 1988; Mann et al., 2009).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main external forcing of climate change in the past 2,000 years are solar irradiance, volcanic activity, orbitally driven insolation, land cover change, and greenhouse gas concentration (Mann, 2007;McGregor et al, 2015;PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013;Schmidt et al, 2011). In addition, the internal variability or dynamics of the climate system, for example, the SAM and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may also influence the regional climate in Southern Hemisphere (Gillett et al, 2006;Lüning et al, 2019). Among the above factors, the impacts of land cover change depend strongly on the location and/or the season, and its effect in Antarctica is suggested to be very small (Bauer et al, 2003;Schmidt et al, 2011Schmidt et al, , 2012 Abram et al (2014), given as difference to the average value of 1-1900 CE, the black step line shows the average Index in each 50-year bin, and the orange columns highlight the periods with negative SAM Index.…”

Section: Factors Influencing the Eap Climate In The Past 2000 Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Proxy records are needed to test the validity of climate models due to the short length of Antarctic instrumental temperature records (only since 1950s). The stable isotope composition of water (δD or δ 18 O) in Antarctic ice cores is a good proxy of past temperature (positive correlation), and it has been widely used to reconstruct the variability of surface temperature in Antarctica over the past two millennia (Goosse et al., 2012; Lüning et al., 2019; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013; Schneider et al., 2006; Stenni et al., 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…used to reconstruct the variability of surface temperature in Antarctica over the past two millennia (Goosse et al, 2012;Lüning et al, 2019;PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013;Schneider et al, 2006;Stenni et al, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Long‐Term Cooling Trend in East Antarctic Plateau Over the Past 2000 Years Is Only Robust Between 550 and 1550 CE

Hou

Jiang

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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The uncertainties in Antarctic climate reconstructions due to scarcity of proxy records have restricted the understanding of mechanisms of climate change, and further hindered the improvement of climate models. Here, we provide a new climate record derived from water stable isotopes in a Dome A, East Antarctica ice core. Together with six other ice core records, the Dome A record is used to investigate temperature changes in East Antarctic Plateau (EAP) during period 1–1900 CE. Our results show that, a previously reported long‐term cooling trend in EAP during the recent (pre‐1900 CE) 1900 years is only robust between 550 and 1550 CE. A combination of solar and volcanic forcing may have induced the EAP centennial‐scale cold events, and further caused the long‐term cooling trend from 550 to 1550 CE with a small contribution from orbital forcing.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Factors Influencing the Eap Climate In The Past 2000 Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Long‐Term Cooling Trend in East Antarctic Plateau Over the Past 2000 Years Is Only Robust Between 550 and 1550 CE

Hou

Jiang

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…This is important to avoid regional bias in larger-scale T2k composites. For example, the original idea that the MWP may have been predominantly a "regional North Atlantic phenomenon" [17] can no longer be supported because warming associated with the MWP has, meanwhile, also been documented from many other regions of the world, e.g., China, South America, Africa, Oceania and Antarctica [18][19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Discussion Of Similarities and Possible Reasons For Discrepa...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How Reliable Are Global Temperature Reconstructions of the Common Era?

Lüning

Lengsfeld

2022

Earth

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Global mean annual temperature has increased by more than 1 °C during the past 150 years, as documented by thermometer measurements. Such observational data are, unfortunately, not available for the pre-industrial period of the Common Era (CE), for which the climate development is reconstructed using various types of palaeoclimatological proxies. In this analysis, we compared seven prominent hemispheric and global temperature reconstructions for the past 2000 years (T2k) which differed from each other in some segments by more than 0.5 °C. Whilst some T2k show negligible pre-industrial climate variability (“hockey sticks”), others suggest significant temperature fluctuations. We discuss possible sources of error and highlight three criteria that need to be considered to increase the quality and stability of future T2k reconstructions. Temperature proxy series are to be thoroughly validated with regards to (1) reproducibility, (2) seasonal stability, and (3) areal representativeness. The T2k represents key calibration data for climate models. The models need to first reproduce the reconstructed pre-industrial climate history before being validated and cleared for climate projections of the future. Precise attribution of modern warming to anthropogenic and natural causes will not be possible until T2k composites stabilize and are truly representative for a well-defined region and season. The discrepancies between the different T2k reconstructions directly translate into a major challenge with regards to the political interpretation of the climate change risk profile. As a rule of thumb, the larger/smaller the pre-industrial temperature changes, the higher/lower the natural contribution to the current warm period (CWP) will likely be, thus, reducing/increasing the CO2 climate sensitivity and the expected warming until 2100.

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