The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods

Xu, Jianchu; Grumbine, R. Edward; Shrestha, A. B.; Eriksson, Max; Yang, Xuefei; Wang, Yun; Wilkes, Andreas

doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01237.x

Cited by 820 publications

(533 citation statements)

References 91 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

525

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…R. virgatum and R. delavayi are among the lowest-elevation species in our sample. As chilling requirements have been proposed as an adaptation to cold climates (19,24,37), the lack of chilling requirement we observed in these two species could be related to the milder climatic conditions experienced by low-altitude rhododendron species. The effects on phenology of warmer temperatures, delayed winter chilling, and other cues such as photoperiod are only beginning to be understood (49,50).…”

mentioning

confidence: 86%

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Hart

Salick

Ranjitkar

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

133

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1°C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1°C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding longterm change.phenology | global warming I n an era of ongoing climate change (1), shifts in seasonal timing of life history events (phenology) are among the first and the most important responses seen in biological systems (2-5). Changes in phenology potentially impact organism reproduction, population survival, species boundaries, and ecosystem service (6-8). However, despite the importance of phenological changes (9, 10), data sources are limited (11). Satellite imagery (12), experimental studies (13), and modern observational records of phenology (11,14) are temporally restricted to the last few decades. Although historical phenological records kept by scientists, amateur naturalists, or for cultural reasons (15-17) may extend much further, these are often limited in geographic range, and tend to focus on North America and Europe (but see ref. 18).Such records have not been found for the Himalayan region, an area of particular concern when considering climate change. Rapid temperature increases and changes in precipitation, in combination with the importance of Himalayan snowpack and glaciers to water supply and monsoon cycles, make the region one of the most threatened nonpolar areas of the world (1,19). Recent climate change is impacting Himalayan biological systems, including those upon which humans rely (20-23).Despite its remoteness, the botanical richness of Yulong Mountain (27°N, 100.2°E), at the eastern limit of the Himalayan region, has made it a center of botanical collection since the late 19th century. Yulong Mountain was home to the prolific plant hunters George Forrest (collecting 1904-1930) and Joseph Rock (collecting 1918-1948). Other early collectors in the area included Jean Marie Delavayi, Heinrich ...

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 86%

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Hart

Salick

Ranjitkar

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

133

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The potential loss of a substantial fraction of glacier ice volume until the end of this century will significantly alter the runoff characteristics of mountainous drainage basins (e.g., Braun et al, 2000;Barnett et al, 2005;Huss, 2011). Due to a seasonal shortage of water supply, downstream impacts of changes in the cryosphere might be considerable in terms of irrigation for agriculture, hydropower production, river transportation and ecology (Xu et al, 2009;Immerzeel et al, 2010;Kaser et al, 2010;Viviroli et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

show abstract

“…Global climate change has adversely affected many sectors including pastoralism in different ways (Xu et al 2009;Mearns and Norton 2010;Dong et al 2011;Bellard et al 2012). Enhancement of action on adaptation by "building resilience of socio-ecological systems, including through economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources" has been recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in decision 1/CP 16.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Livelihood diversification as an adaptation approach to change in the pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

Ismail

Joshi

et al. 2014

J. Mt. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region.

show abstract

The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods

Cited by 820 publications

References 91 publications

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Livelihood diversification as an adaptation approach to change in the pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About