We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.

The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset was analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over six South Asian countries during the twenty-first century. The CMIP6 model simulations reveal biases in annual mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia in the present climate. In the historical period, the median of the CMIP6 model ensemble systematically underestimates the annual mean temperature for all the South Asian countries, while a mixed behavior is shown in the case of precipitation. In the future climate, the CMIP6 models display higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions over South Asia compared with the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble from 27 CMIP6 models projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South Asia during the twenty-first century under three future scenarios. The projected temperature shows a large increase (over 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario) over the northwestern parts of South Asia, comprising the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. Any large increase in the mean temperature over this region will most likely result in a faster rate of glacier melting. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over South Asia is projected to increase by 1.2 (0.7–2.1) °C, 2.1 (1.5–3.3) °C, and 4.3 (3.2–6.6) °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the present (1995–2014) climate. The warming over South Asia is also continuous on the seasonal time scale. The CMIP6 models projected higher warming in the winter season than in the summer over South Asia, which if verified will have repercussions for snow/ice accumulations as well as winter cropping patterns. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over South Asia during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in the projected annual mean precipitation varies considerably between the South Asian countries. By the end of the twenty-first century, the country-averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1 (2.2–49.1)% in Bangladesh, 18.9 (−4.9 to 72)% in Bhutan, 27.3 (5.3–160.5)% in India, 19.5 (−5.9 to 95.6)% in Nepal, 26.4 (6.4–159.7)% in Pakistan, and 25.1 (−8.5 to 61.0)% in Sri Lanka under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The seasonal precipitation projections also shows large variability. The projected winter precipitation reveals a robust increase over the western Himalayas, with a corresponding decrease over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, the summer precipitation shows a robust increase over most of the South Asia region, with the largest increase over the arid region of southern Pakistan and adjacent areas of India, under the high-emission scenario. The results presented in this study give detailed insights into CMIP6 model performance over the South Asia region, which could be extended further to develop adaptation strategies, and may act as a guideline document for climate change related policymaking in the region.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

Abstract. The Tibetan plateau is the source of most of the major rivers of Asia and has a huge impact on the livelihoods of the population, who have for centuries engaged in traditional herding practices. Sustainable management of the plateau is of critical importance not only for maintaining livelihoods but also because of its vital ecological function. The major problem of sustainable development in these grassland-livestock systems is the conflict between forage and livestock production. Despite considerable investment of manpower, material resources and capital over many years, attempts to resolve the problem have not been successful. The magnitude of conflict between forage and livestock is addressed by presenting 19 resolution strategies based on numerous research data. Each of these strategies is evaluated in terms of how it can be implemented, its potential benefits for livestock production, current progress and the requirement for further research. The 19 strategies have been divided into four topic categories, namely; grassland-forage, livestock, economy and market, societyculture, which cover the basic elements of sustainable development in this pastoral region. It is argued that improved planning and implementation of the proposed strategies must be based on the background investigation of natural and social status of the pastoral region. Particular attention needs to be given to genetic resources and technology in order to ensure the successful implementation of these proposals. In addition to expanding the use of 18 currently practiced strategies, the authors propose a further novel strategy of replacing the current intensive form of ecological migration with a model incorporating two semipermanent settlements. The objective of this novel strategy is to retain the nomadic element of pastoral husbandry while increasing the temporal and spatial scale of rotational stocking to reduce pasture degradation on the Tibetan plateau. It is argued that these proposals should be urgently incorporated into two national plans for the pastoral livestock industry, and the construction of an ecologically safe shelter zone on the Tibetan plateau, while ensuring a sustainable livelihood of its pastoral residents. Ensuring a successful implementation of these strategies in resolving the conflict between grassland and livestock, and promoting sustainable development on the Tibetan plateau, requires willing support at the level of national investment and policy commitment and from the herdsmen.