The Metainductive Justification of Induction: The Pool of Strategies

Sterkenburg, Tom F.

doi:10.1086/705526

Cited by 12 publications

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“…3891-92) responds convincingly to the objection. For a helpful discussion of this issue, seeSterkenburg ([2019], pp. 986-89).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Sterkenburg ([2019]) discusses another potential problem for Schurz's approach, namely that he cannot show the optimality of meta-induction for an expanding pool of prediction methods. The presentation and discussion of this problem would take up too much space, so I do not include it here.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Note that strategy (II) also has a chance to circumvent the issue raised bySterkenburg ([2019]) for Schurz's meta-inductive strategy of not being able to deal adequately with an expanding pool of object-level prediction methods, s. fn. 9.…”

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confidence: 99%

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In defence of science: Two ways to rehabilitate Reichenbach’s vindication of induction

Briesen¹

2023

The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

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Confronted with the problem of induction, Hans Reichenbach accepts that we cannot justify that induction is reliable. He tries to solve the problem by proving a weaker proposition: that induction is an optimal method of prediction, because it is guaranteed not to be worse and may be better than any alternative. Regarding the most serious objection to his approach, Reichenbach himself hints at an answer without spelling it out. In this paper, I will argue that there are two workable strategies to rehabilitate Reichenbach's account. The first leads to the widely discussed method of meta-induction, as proposed by Gerhard Schurz. The second strategy has not been suggested thus far. I will develop the second strategy and argue for it being, in some respects, superior to the first and closer to Reichenbach's own position. The strategy is based on Reichenbach's idea that the inductive straight rule is not only applicable on the object but also on the method level. He does not spell out how exactly this insight is supposed to save his account. But he seems to assume that nothing more than the straight rule and the different levels of its application is needed for this purpose. The strategy introduced in this paper illustrates that this assumption is correct.

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“…3891-92) responds convincingly to the objection. For a helpful discussion of this issue, seeSterkenburg ([2019], pp. 986-89).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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In defence of science: Two ways to rehabilitate Reichenbach’s vindication of induction

Briesen¹

2023

The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

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“…For an excellent introduction to the field seeCesa-Bianchi & Lugosi (2006). Philosophers have already used the prediction with expert advice framework to offer new solutions to Hume's problem of induction(Schurz, 2008(Schurz, , 2009(Schurz, , 2019; seeArnold, 2010 andSterkenburg, 2019 for a discussion of limitations of the approach) and to clarify the foundations and assumptions of Solomonoff's theory of inductive inference(Solmonoff, 1964 andLi &Vitányi, 2008; see Sterkenburg, 2018, chapter 6 for the analysis with prediction with expert advice).…”

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confidence: 99%

Prediction with expert advice applied to the problem of prediction with expert advice

Herrmann

2022

Synthese

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We often need to have beliefs about things on which we are not experts. Luckily, we often have access to expert judgements on such topics. But how should we form our beliefs on the basis of expert opinion when experts conflict in their judgments? This is the core of the novice/2-expert problem in social epistemology. A closely related question is important in the context of policy making: how should a policy maker use expert judgments when making policy in domains in which she is not herself an expert? This question is more complex, given the messy and strategic nature of politics. In this paper we argue that the prediction with expert advice (PWEA) framework from machine learning provides helpful tools for addressing these problems. We outline conditions under which we should expert PWEA to be helpful and those under which we should not expect these methods to perform well.

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Rechtfertigung induktiven Schließens

Schurz

2021

Erkenntnistheorie

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The Metainductive Justification of Induction: The Pool of Strategies

Abstract: This paper poses a challenge to Schurz's proposed meta-inductive justification of induction. It is argued that Schurz's argument requires a notion of optimality that can deal with an expanding pool of prediction strategies.

Cited by 12 publications

References 11 publications

In defence of science: Two ways to rehabilitate Reichenbach’s vindication of induction

In defence of science: Two ways to rehabilitate Reichenbach’s vindication of induction

Prediction with expert advice applied to the problem of prediction with expert advice

Rechtfertigung induktiven Schließens

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