The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity

Reynolds, Douglas B.

doi:10.1016/s0921-8009(99)00098-1

Cited by 102 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Finally, regarding costs, the present simulations confirmed the results of Reynolds (1999). For the simplest models (fixed time search and optimal amount search), costs increased throughout the simulation, with the rise highly noticeable after the production peak.…”

Section: Article In Presssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…In Reynold's model (Reynolds, 1999), two technological parameters are defined. One is the shortterm ''Q'' and one the long-term ''L'' in the form of a multiplier of the probability expðÀQ=LÞ: Q reduces the probability of finding a tin in each successive search the same cycle.…”

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this purpose I will develop a specific stochastic simulation in order to figure out how human policies may affect the shape of the curves with a special view to oil production and depletion. The model described here is inspired mainly by a model developed by Reynolds (1999) which is based on the concept of Robinson Crusoe surviving in a deserted island on hardtack tins left around by previous shipwrecks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

Bardi

2005

Energy Policy

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The production and the depletion of mineral resources, and especially oil and fossil fuels, has been an object of extensive predictive modeling. These predictions are often derived from Hubbert's model which is based on the fitting of the experimental data to a symmetric, bell-shaped curve. Although this model describes several historical cases, in particular, crude oil production in the lower 48 US states, not all theoretical models for the ''mineral economy'' are based on symmetric curves. Also, not much attention has been dedicated so far to the mechanisms which lead to such a behavior. In particular, scarce attention has been dedicated to the factors which may make the production curve asymmetric, e.g. a decline in production more abrupt than the growth. In the present paper, the author uses a stochastic model to examine factors affecting these phenomena. The results of the simulations indicate that the production curves of a non-renewable resource may be asymmetric in dependence on factors such as the search strategy or the presence of technological improvements. Considering worldwide oil production, the simulations indicate that the after-peak downward slope might turn out to be considerably more steep than the upward slope, something that could have unpleasant effects on the economy. r

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Section: Article In Presssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

Bardi

2005

Energy Policy

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“…In line with Rehrl and Friedrich (2006), who combine analyzes of discovery processes (Uhler, 1976) and of the "mineral economy" (Reynolds, 1999) (in t -1 ) controls the intensity of constraints on production growth: a small (high) b i means a flat (sloping) production profile to represent slow (fast) deployment of production capacities. The parameter t 0,i represents the date at which production capacities of the concerned oil category are expected to start their decline due to depletion effects.…”

Section: Oil Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

et al. 2013

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The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backward" approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

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“…12 This will occur because of economic development in countries like China and India, and also because of the dependence of the Western economies on motor vehicles, aviation and a supply of commodities, manufactures and food which come from China, India and other developing economies.…”

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peak oil: Will it be public health's greatest challenge?

Hanlon

McCartney

2008

Public Health

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Summary The health of populations is determined more by the social and economic determinants of health than by changes in technology, health services or short-term policy interventions. In the near future, there is likely to be a significant shortfall in energy supply, resulting in high energy prices and a reversal of many of the aspects of globalization that are currently taken for granted. If this happens, economic recession and restructuring could have a negative impact on health, not dissimilar to that experienced by the former Soviet Union when it attempted a rapid change in its economy. There is, however, the potential, through economic planning and sustainable development, to reduce the adverse effects of this change and use this opportunity to impact on a range of diseases which are, at least in part, caused by overconsumption, inequality and loss of community.

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The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity

Cited by 102 publications

References 12 publications

The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

Peak oil: Will it be public health's greatest challenge?

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