The Modelling of Power System of Ukraine Development for Assessment of Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement

Kostyukovskyi, Borys

doi:10.15407/pge2021.02.028

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The author points out that "... the correctness of the justification of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2) is of great importance, because by adopting overly ambitious goals, Ukraine may face a number of challenges in the future, in particular: -overly limited volumes of GHG emissions that Ukraine can annually achieve may become a factor that will restrain the development of the domestic economy; -lack of financial opportunities to ensure the implementation of the policy of decarbonization of the economy and the implementation of relevant measures, which must be presented in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (NPEC). Failure to take appropriate measures will be a violation of Ukraine's international obligations" [14].…”

Section: The Main Partmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a tool, the model and software of the BACS-RVE complex were used, which is currently supported by the NGO "Bureau of Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasts" and was used in the preparation of the Report on the Assessment of Compliance (Sufficiency) of Generating Capacities, which is being developed in compliance with Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine on the Electricity Market NEC "Ukrenergo". Unlike the TIMES-Ukraine model, the BACS-RVE complex provides a detailed consideration of regulatory factors, balance sheet reliability requirements, and the specifics of market regulation of activities in the power industry [14].…”

Section: The Main Partmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)

Maistrenko

2023

Sist. dosl. energ. (Online)

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An overview of existing methodological approaches for long-term forecasting of energy consumption at various hierarchical levels of economic structure (in individual sections, sections, groups, classes, and industries or services) is provided for the development of mathematical dependencies for accounting for restrictions on emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants in further work. These approaches will complement the system of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy consumption in the country's economy, which were previously used at General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. It is proposed to use mutually agreed mathematical models of three types to study the long-term development and functioning of energy consumption: models of the life cycle of the main technological facilities at the enterprise level, simulation models of the formation of transit flows of energy resources through the territory of Ukraine and optimization models for predicting the development of a certain section (industry) of the economy, which are generally applied in the energy supply system in the country. Also, for energy-intensive sections of the economy as electricity consumers, it is necessary to take into account: the manufacturer of products that has a reference indicator of emissions, with or without interchangeability of electricity and fuel, calculates direct emissions from production plus indirect emissions from consumed electricity. In other cases, they are calculated on the basis of a reference indicator of emissions for fuel or technological processes, and (or) adjusted for the ratio of direct emissions to the sum of direct and indirect emissions. Keywords: fuel and energy resources, modeling, forecasting, electricity consumption, greenhouse gases.

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Section: The Main Partmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Main Partmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)

Maistrenko

2023

Sist. dosl. energ. (Online)

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Taking into account limitations on greenhouse gas emissions in the fuel consumption forecasting model at the national level

Maliarenko,

Ivanenko

2024

Sist. dosl. energ.

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Energy demand forecasting models have been developed at the General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for decades. An improved normative method is known, which takes into account, the technological and structural potential of energy saving; a new complex method of forecasting the demand for energy resources, which was developed by Kulyk M.M. and improved by taking into account the fuel for conversion; life cycle models that have been extensively improved at the Institute over the past decade for various areas (nuclear energy, coal industry, oil and gas industry); the balance method developed for coal demand forecasting. These models were used in the development of Energy Strategies in Ukraine with the participation of the General Energy Institute. The actual problem is taking into account environmental restrictions in these models, which Ukraine undertook as a signatory of the Paris Agreement. Ukraine`s updated 2021 National Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement of (NDC2), which was developed to implement environmental commitments, limits the forecast levels of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 up to 35 % of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990. It is assumed that the same limitation can be applied to fuel consumption. The purpose of the article is to develop a mathematical model for forecasting fuel demand by taking into account the limit of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, which allows to choose such forecast scenarios of fuel demand that, according to the total forecast volumes of greenhouse gas emissions from its consumption, meet the accepted restrictions. The article discusses the consumption of coal and oil products. Estimated volumes of coal and petroleum products consumption in case of structural and/or technological changes are calculated. An assessment of technological measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in various sectors of the Ukrainian economy is presented. Keywords: fuel, forecast, GDP, greenhouse gases, emissions limitation.

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Analysis of factors influencing electricity consumption upon the implementation of the “Green” energy transition concept in Ukraine by 2050

Sudarykov

2024

Sist. dosl. energ.

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On the way to EU membership, Ukraine joined the "European Green Deal", which aims to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions and zero environmental pollution by transitioning from the use of fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy and raw materials in the member states of the European Union by 2050. The concept of the "green" energy transition of Ukraine by 2050 was formulated, which involves a change in approaches to the development of energy with an emphasis on the problem of combating climate change and sustainable economic development. When achieving the goals of the "green" transition, it is important to understand which factors have the greatest impact on electricity consumption. It is promising to include such factors in electricity demand forecasting models. These models will become increasingly important to ensure network reliability and efficiency. Identifying the factors that affect energy consumption can drive innovation in energy-efficient technologies and practices. The article concludes that electricity consumption in Ukraine is affected by the same main factors as in other countries of the world. The desired reduction in electricity consumption can be achieved both by purely economic measures (increasing tariffs) and by more acceptable, technological measures. However, in the conditions of war, there are additional difficulties, such as the difficulty of forecasting the structure, state, and development of the energy system on the energy market. A significant part of the population now has more urgent problems than energy conservation, so the role of the state in this issue is increasing. Ukraine's energy system has already suffered significant destruction, and this process is ongoing and may continue for an indefinite period of time. Despite the difficulties, the lost power system equipment is gradually being replaced with new, more technologically advanced equipment. Some of the enterprises that had significant consumption were either lost or failed. The most adapted to new problems turned out to be the trade sector and the service sector and part of the population. Here, there is a rapid transition to the use of own generators, solar panels and electric transport, which reduces the consumption of electricity from the state power system. Industry, taking into account the funds required for this, will replace technologies with more energy-efficient ones after the end of the active phase of the war. Keywords: "green" transition, energy efficiency, electricity consumption, electricity demand forecasting, energy system.

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The Modelling of Power System of Ukraine Development for Assessment of Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)

Taking into account environmental constraints on emissions in economic models long-term forecasting of energy consumption (review of publications)

Taking into account limitations on greenhouse gas emissions in the fuel consumption forecasting model at the national level

Analysis of factors influencing electricity consumption upon the implementation of the “Green” energy transition concept in Ukraine by 2050

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